this observation was just posted by Angela on yahoo "conversations". I thought it was an interesting perspective,would be interested in others thoughts
"This recent news isn't just good it's actually very very good. Anavex started on patients with a higher beginning MMSE than most studies because decline is MOST APPARENT in the early stages. Holding around 20 is amazing. I really wonder if anyone who is selling right now has actually bothered to look at an ACTUAL P3 alzheimer's study to see what the control / placebo group WOULD be doing normally without a drug? First of all the control group isn't going to be taking nothing because that is unethical. The placebo / control group is going to be on the standard of care which is Donepezil. So if you look at a study that compares a new drug to a Donepezil control group you can see the MMSE curve.
Talking about how this study doesn't have a control group is meaningless, we can see what results would be expected from a control group just by looking at other large studies!!
To get a picture of how well A2-73 is actually doing consider that patients are on it WITHOUT Donepezil and maintaining.
It's very easy to see how well this drug is doing if you have the inclination to study other trials. A good starting point is the recent P3 that ended for Escitalopram. If you haven't read this study and others you really have no business buying this stock at all. I think people just buy in based on hype and then get taken advantage of and lose money. SAD!
Just have a look at this study titled: "Multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial of escitalopram on the progression-delaying effects in Alzheimer’s disease"
Note the massive decrease in the control arm (which is patients treated with just Donepezil) and note that they tweaked the study to have a lower entry MMSE so that scores are more likely to be maintained.
When evaluating if the news is good at this stage for A2-73 the question is does this news encourage or discourage us to go further with a P3 trial. That's literally the only thing that matters. The poster actually explicitly said a P3 was encouraged, and when you look at what other P3 trials that were funded and took place you can see that there is overwhelming compelling evidence to go forward with an A2-73 P3 trial. OVERWHELMING!"
AI
