Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[McMagyar]

PLEX..i posted earlier how I derived at +6 ..YES it is a GOOD NUMBER..
I think it might be low..here is how I came up with from earlier post:
I changed some of the wording but left conclusions the same..


it is simple math and deductive reasoning..
at least 10%(I actually ASSUME a HIGHER NOMBER) of 32n study has if not fully recovered, close to and since the ADCS-ADL test is quite basic..their improvement on their score should be substantial.
The % of overall effected is 80% ..at least..probably higher since we KNOW that we have PK Effect SO the low responding 3 mg dosage is eliminated and a more positive effect from higher & longer dosage..
75% up 5pts 69 X .75 of 32 =24= 1656
10% up 10pt 74 X 4 = 296

start at 64 pts Educated Guess for ADCS-ADL at 26 WEEKS = 69.71 pts
UP 5.71 PTS..

Patients with ZERO HELP..probably even with Aricept Down 4-5 Points at 6 months..or ..linear decline from Trial start..usual progression of AD..
59pts would be average ADCS-ADL score

it is not complicated..made very few assumptions that do not make sense based on past reports and announcements..
what do YOU THINK this ADCS-ADL number or a very like number will do
to Anavex? Especailly when ALL THE OTHER TESTS back up COGNITIVE IMPROVEMENTS ..