Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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One reputable source claims that there are 5 million people in the US with Alzheimer’s (each year).

Let’s presume (at this stage, only a presumption) that Anavex 2-73 is approved by the FDA and is prescribed and effective for all American Alzheimer’s patients. Let’s presume (perhaps too conservatively) that each patient pays $100 a month for the drug (about $3 a day).

At that rate, Anavex takes in $500 million a month. For a year, the company takes in $6 billion. Expand those revenues proportionately when considering treatments in other countries.

Similar numbers derive from Anavex 2-73 when it is used (eventually) for Parkinson’s disease. Then, add the other geriatric neurodegenerative diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Lou Gehrig’s disease), and the ever-expanding number of human conditions for which 2-73 might have efficacy.

Ten billion dollars a year in Anavex revenues — or multiples — are certainly reasonable, should 2-73 prove to have the broad-spectrum efficacy that animal and early human clinical data now strongly suggest.