Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump, or None of the Above
Editorial Observer
By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON JULY 9, 2016

RALEIGH, N.C. — Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by an average of five percentage points nationally, recent polls suggest. But both campaigns — just like all campaigns in earlier years — are hoping and praying that “independent” and “undecided” voters (who aren’t necessarily the same) can be persuaded to swing their way.

It may not be an easy sell: This year “undecided” often means “none of the above.”

Take John Sinsley, a telecommunications consultant in Raleigh, N.C., capital of a battleground state. Mr. Sinsley, 47, who says Bill Clinton was our last good president, is the type of independent voter Hillary Clinton is courting in this tossup state.

“I can’t legitimately vote for either presidential candidate,” he said. “I don’t trust Hillary Clinton. Trump is refreshing, but only so far as he’s throwing a wrench into the political system. But I’m not going to cast a vote just in protest.”

Every presidential year, the “undecideds” exasperate pollsters and partisans until November, when most of them wind up voting for a major party candidate, or not at all.

But this cycle, dissatisfaction with both major-party options — what Comedy Central’s Trevor Noah called “Sophie’s choice if Sophie hated both of her kids” — has redefined “undecided.” About four in 10 voters say they’re having trouble choosing between the two candidates because neither would make a good president, according to a new Pew Research Center study. That’s as high as at any point since 2000. Very few — 11 percent — find the choice difficult because both candidates would make a good president, the lowest proportion in the same time period.

Related, but separate, is that the share of voters calling themselves “independent” this year is at a 75-year high, according to the Pew Center. At 39 percent, they’re a plurality of the electorate.

Undecided voters might be sitting on the fence, but they’re paying attention. Fully 80 percent of registered voters say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election, the highest share at this point in any campaign since 1992, according to Pew.

Buzz Merchant, a construction company owner from Wendell, N.C., told me that Bernie Sanders’s loss leaves him in a quandary. “If it were life or death, I’d pick Trump,” he said.

Shamone Moise, Mr. Merchant’s girlfriend, disagreed. “If Trump gets in we’re done — I’m thinking bombs, war, boom,” she told me. “But I don’t believe a word Clinton says.”

“I may have to find another button, but I will vote,” she said.

Undecided voters like these tend to break for lesser-known candidates, says Doug Schwartz, Quinnipiac University’s polling director. That’s fueling a modest bump in the polls for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who’s polling at about 8 percent nationally.

“Things could shift dramatically because there’s so many people still up for grabs who don’t have the anchor of party ID,” Mr. Schwartz said.

Sometimes the people who call themselves “undecided” are actually leaning toward Mr. Trump, and maybe feeling uneasy about admitting it.

I spoke with a 50ish man from Charlotte, N.C., who refused to give me his name, because he’s an independent who doesn’t want anyone to know he is “maybe 50 percent there” for Mr. Trump.

“I’ve ruled out Hillary, which is kind of sad,” he said. “But I work in a bank, and I would be fired for what she did with her emails.” Still, “Trump has the potential to divide the country, when we want to unify it.”

He sighed. “I’ve never not voted. It’s not that I’m frustrated with the process. But you’ve got to feel like you’re making the best choice.”

Back in Raleigh, Megan Healy leans the other way. “I might vote for Hillary Clinton, but only to take a vote away from Donald Trump,” she said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/opinion/sunday/mrs-clinton-mr-trump-or-none-of-the-above.html?ref=opinion