NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

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Those living longer (in the Info Arm) are pseudos. - iclight

Okay... let's work with that.

The double rapid progressors most certainly are rapid progressors. If you deny that, then you aren't ceeing the light.

The typical median OS for a rapid progressor runs between 8.3 to 10.8 months. The median OS of those patients who are absolutely rapid progressors and who received DCVax-L in the Info Arm is 15.3 months. That's a 4.5 to 7 month increase in life expectancy. And this is from patients whose prognosis is pretty dim. This is also the group Dr. Prins wants to focus on for the checkpoint inhibitor combo trial because he and Linda Liau are looking to cure GBM, not simply extend life by half a year.

Next come the "apparent" rapid progressors... so termed because they recurred too soon to be allowed into the trial... but, could have, as Avii has argued, had pseudo progressors in the group as well.

If we take the whole apparent group, the median OS reaches approximately 20 months. That's 9.2 to 11.7 months above the average life expectancy for a rapid progressing GBM patient. It's also 5.5 months higher than the average GBM patient; although comparing it to all GBM patients isn't really appropriate because this group is either rapid or pseudo... neither of which are in the main arm of the trial.

So... if we separate out those patients who are likely rapid progressors in the "Apparent" group, an educated guess based on life expectancy would be that the bottom 14 are rapid progressors. Their median OS when grouped like that approximately 15 months... strikingly similar to those of the "double rapid progressors."

That leaves the top 11 patients, most of whom are all still alive. Let's group those 11 patients separately and when we do, we find that for those we are theorizing are pseudo progressors, we find currently a median OS of approximately 42 months. And out of that group of 11, 5 were still alive as of January 2016, one had been alive but there had been no new information since then, and 4 had passed.

If we take apart the Information Arm as Avii wanted us to, it looks pretty much like L is representing close to a cure for pseudo progressors. And if the OS numbers for the rapid progressors represent a window into the Main Arm of the trial, it looks hopeful that we can expect similar to even more improved PFS numbers amongst those patients. All they need is a difference of 4 months to prove efficacy. They already proved they could reach that from the smaller number available from those 45 Info Arm patients I just discussed.