The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

OPEC, a shadow of what it once was:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-no-way-to-run-an-oil-cartel-1464890621

OPEC now produces about 32 million barrels of crude daily, slightly more than it did 40 years ago. Back then, though, that was just under half of global supply; today it is one-third.

This naturally makes OPEC less influential, but it faces two more significant problems. One is that its two most powerful members, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are in a fight for market share and involved in regional proxy wars. So they are unlikely to cooperate. A lack of unanimity makes a cartel unworkable.

An even thornier issue is that technology has unlocked vast but expensive unconventional oil deposits. That puts an upper level on long-term oil prices of perhaps $60 or $70 a barrel, not the $100 plus seen two years ago. Any higher and wells that can produce oil with 100% certainty eight months after being drilled can flood the market.