Very intelligent question — what sort of dividends might Anavex be able to throw off when 2-73 is FDA-approved and used worldwide for Alzheimer’s and any number of other neurological or physiological conditions?
Frankly, that’s not a question anyone could answer right now. Some self-proclaimed (even demonstrated) financial analysts might lay out any range of numbers on this. But, presently, it is impossible for these numbers to be usefully accurate. At best, any of them would be well-worded (seemingly expert) quesses.
And, as a biologist, I’m least qualified to offer any useful prognostications on future Anavex earnings or dividends. Nonetheless, anyone can discern the high numbers of moderns who are and will be afflicted with Alzheimer’s. One needn’t be a financial analyst specializing in health care issues to understand the magnitude (if not the exact size) of the Alzheimer’s treatment/prevention market in coming years and decades.
In 1990, who could have predicted the size, earnings, and dividends of a small western company claiming rights to lines of binary code (Microsoft)? Might Anavex be a 21st-century health-care Microsoft? I just read that presently typical annual medication costs for Alzheimer’s patients is in the range of $35,000. What are the financial implications for all parties, patients, physicians, healthcare facilities, insurance companies, and Anavex shareholders if 2-73 might significantly reduce AD medication costs, even prevent or suppress the disease? One can see that Anavex won’t be charging $10 per week dosage costs. 2-73 won’t be an Alzheimer’s aspirin, at least price-wise.
So, might there be future Anavex dividends? Unless Phase 3 clinical trials reveal poor efficacy and/or adverse outcomes, the market for 2-73 will be gigantic, perhaps in the range of some of Microsoft’s code lines.
Why would one ask the question, “How big might Anavex dividends be?” It’s an unknowable datum. The only cogent fact (for me, at least), is that with 2-73 approval Anavex will become exceedingly profitable (or be bought out at a price reflecting future market returns).
Prudently, I’m not mortgaging a new condo against anticipated Anavex values or dividends. Those will appear in their own good time. If someone wants to plug in a future dividend number, just make up that number in your head and plug it into your financial spreadsheet. Until dividends are forthcoming, that made-up number will have as much validity as any, including any I might conjure up.
In short. I have no idea the size of future Anavex dividends. I do have the idea, however, that they will large and continuing (all people grow old, and a large fraction become vulnerable to Alzheimer’s and other geriatric degenerative diseases).
Since I’m a long-term investor, I won’t spend any time trying to work out dividend projections. Waste of time at this juncture. I will be contented merely to learn of the company’s regulatory approval and eventual sales progress for 2-73. I won’t be checking AVXL share prices through the day. Probably once or twice every week. I’m more interested in clinical trials results, so I’ll watch those corporate announcements. I don’t have a day-trader’s perspective on any of this.
AI
