Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[fabius]

I try to propose my numbers, hoping to get more comments e advise on the the discussion Biotech started.
Feel free to correct me if you believe I made wrong assumptions or calculations.

I would use a 5% market capture, but I don't think it's correct to use the sales you get as earnings (as you Biotech did)and then to get eps once you divide by total n of shares.
Of that sales amount you should consider a percentage as earnings (royalties to IPCI) since Intelli has no sales force or network.
Therefore if you consider for instance a low double digit for royalties (12%) then you get 74MLn of earnings.
Then I would use 30Mln of shares (consider the Odidis frugality in issuing new shares) = 2.48 eps.
At this point I would use the market average p/e as reference (14) and go for a conservative 8, which leads to a near 20$ per share valuation.

But there is another big factor, which are the front and milestones payment in cash, usually in the structure product partnership; and that’s the hard part to estimate, but I would look for a conservative total of 250Mln cash (considering ALL the products in the pipeline), which divided by 30/mln shares leads to further 8.3 of earnings per share. Multiply it for the conservative 8 used above and you get a 65$ (conservatively rounded).

85usd per shares