Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[Biotech junkie]

Felt like doing some math today.

Using the Product Pipeline graphic from the company website (the one posted above is outdated) I multiplied the US sales numbers for our pipeline by a modest 2.5% market capture, added them together and got 314M in annual sales.
I then used a share count of 35M accounting for any further dilution. 314M/35M=8.97 earnings per share.
2015 expenses stood at 11.2M or let's say 20M when a production team and more R&D is added, perhaps a marketing team. So 20M/35M=0.57 in expenses. So 8.97-0.57=8.40 earnings per share.
Take 8.40 and multiply it by a modest five times earnings and get about $42.00 per share.
These are all very modest numbers folks. I'm not an accountant so feel free to double check my math or if I'm missing something. My modest higher end estimate puts this at more than $100 per share.
Bottom line, I siding with doog on his $100 per share estimate. Timeline? Well I can see us getting there within the next five years. (I consider this to be a conservative estimate as well)

Things that are in our favor by my calculations,

1) The sales numbers from the graphic are US sales only. What is the rest of the world worth?
2) Market capture with the quality of drugs the IPCI puts out should be higher than 2.5%.Especially with a best in class designation.
3) Will the share count really be 35M? I think right now we are around 25M and Dr. O despite what you hear on some message boards does not favor dilution. He is the largest share holder and gets hurt the most when it happens.
4) Expenses at 20M just being conservative. Your call.
5) 5 times earnings? No expert but I think typical numbers are 10 to 20 times earnings? Experts feel free to weigh in on this one or anything else that needs challenging.
6) The timeline? Well Keppra just got approval and 5 of our pipeline drugs were filed before it 1 only 3 months after. Fast track for Resista? Not sure about Regabatin but it sounds like they want to partner before filling anyway.

As always I encourage everyone to do their own due diligence and take no ones word for anything when it comes to investing.
BTJ