AI
Congratulations PokerSam,
I am still not sure whether I trust what you are saying about the near term, though, we agree in the large scale
But I hope you are right because it would make lots of easy money...
Do I understand correctly that you are calling this to bounce to go to about 37.50 on QQQQ, then down to 35 (if I remember right) and after that to at least 39 and then down, down....
Today's bounce is large credited on the weakened economy as evidenced by Beige Book. I made good money on betting against USD. As I have written before, slowdown in the economy, particularly, consumer spending is NEVER positive for the stock market in the long term. US GDP is about 60% consumer spending and the corporate spending must run very high to compensate. Plus, if there is evidence of medium to long term consumer spending low down, corporate spending slows down quite fast after consumer spending slow down has taken effect.
Today's bounce has very weak foundations but it does not mean that it will not go a lot furher, just that as you have said, it cannot be trusted. But we are coming off from a very low level. Note that GM contributed INDU, OEX, SPX and a bunch of other less known indices.
To me, based on daily charts, it looks like SPX has resistance at 1280. NDX has resistance at 1500, 1520 (better defined), 1540, 1550, 1560. INDU is at resistance, and next points of resistance are at 11150 and 11200. COMPX is at resistance. RUT looks like ready to resume downtrend.
I tend to think that we would go down at least initially tomorrow barring some "fundamental" knee jerk reason that so far I do not see.
I am building positions in December to September puts (preference in November and October ones as seasonally that is where we bottom; August is too early for my strategy; September only when December is very expensive; also I place bids that just exceed the national best bid by the minumum amount on several series, particularly on less liquid issues to get a fill) at the moment instead of playing the long side any more. I had a small long position that I am all out by now. Instead I have bought a bunch of 3 to 4 monts out in time puts when things rally and sold them to reduce the cost basis to zero cost basis on the subsequent falls. At this point, I take only positions in the very short term or long term. The medium term is foggy for me....
I am still not sure whether I trust what you are saying about the near term, though, we agree in the large scale
But I hope you are right because it would make lots of easy money... Do I understand correctly that you are calling this to bounce to go to about 37.50 on QQQQ, then down to 35 (if I remember right) and after that to at least 39 and then down, down....
Today's bounce is large credited on the weakened economy as evidenced by Beige Book. I made good money on betting against USD. As I have written before, slowdown in the economy, particularly, consumer spending is NEVER positive for the stock market in the long term. US GDP is about 60% consumer spending and the corporate spending must run very high to compensate. Plus, if there is evidence of medium to long term consumer spending low down, corporate spending slows down quite fast after consumer spending slow down has taken effect.
Today's bounce has very weak foundations but it does not mean that it will not go a lot furher, just that as you have said, it cannot be trusted. But we are coming off from a very low level. Note that GM contributed INDU, OEX, SPX and a bunch of other less known indices.
To me, based on daily charts, it looks like SPX has resistance at 1280. NDX has resistance at 1500, 1520 (better defined), 1540, 1550, 1560. INDU is at resistance, and next points of resistance are at 11150 and 11200. COMPX is at resistance. RUT looks like ready to resume downtrend.
I tend to think that we would go down at least initially tomorrow barring some "fundamental" knee jerk reason that so far I do not see.
I am building positions in December to September puts (preference in November and October ones as seasonally that is where we bottom; August is too early for my strategy; September only when December is very expensive; also I place bids that just exceed the national best bid by the minumum amount on several series, particularly on less liquid issues to get a fill) at the moment instead of playing the long side any more. I had a small long position that I am all out by now. Instead I have bought a bunch of 3 to 4 monts out in time puts when things rally and sold them to reduce the cost basis to zero cost basis on the subsequent falls. At this point, I take only positions in the very short term or long term. The medium term is foggy for me....
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