GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

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The Ord Oracle
By Tim Ord

* May 12, 2016

Monitoring purposes SPX: short SPX on 4/29/16 at 2065.30
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 4/14/16 at 21.60
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28



The Gold Commercials came in at – 294,901 contracts as of 5/6/16; previous week reading was minus -240,108 contracts. The chart above is the daily GDX. In Elliott wave terms, in bull markets a five count up is expected and in bear markets only a three wave up pattern is expected. So far we can count only Three waves higher. If this is a bull market in Gold stocks (identified with the monthly RSI on GDX closing above 50 at the end of April) than the current rise in GDX should unfold in an Elliott Wave five count up. There is a possibility that Wave 3 finished at the May 2 high and the current pattern forming is a Wave 4. Once Wave 4 completes than Wave 5 will start and break to new highs. There is also a count where Wave 3 is not finished which would have a more bullish outcome. But for now, it appears Wave 5 is still in front of us and the rally from the February low is still incomplete. Long GDX at 21.60 on 4/14/16; Stop at 22.00 on 5/2/16.

Tim Ord,
Editor

http://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2016/05/tim-ord-the-ord-oracle-may-12-2016.html

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