I wrote out the tome that follows for my benefit and for no one else but me. It says nothing new. But after two months + of reading and thinking and processing info and views, everything begins to become distorted. It gets to a point where I had to ask myself, "As of today, what do I really think?" So for any of you who read further, thank you for putting up with my thinking out loud.
After more than two months reading the debate between whether or not SUNRISE was a catastrophe or a success (because it performed as expected; the stumbling block was the spectacular out-performance of docetaxel), the two primary positions are:
(1) The most knowledgeable posters regarding the science of BAVI (CP, biopharm, sunstar, cjgaddy) all seem to be in agreement: BAVI continues to be studied by AZN, MSK, etc. Sunstar today indicated that, based upon how he read the SUNRISE results, the absolute miunimum survival rate will turn out, in the end, to be nearly 15 months. But. bottom line: BAVI is a success in Phase III and King said so (though I remind you that he did say the ending of SUNRISE was a huge disappointment).
(2) The other camp, not too shabby themselves in their experience of biotech investing, sees BAVI as a dead issue. SUNRISE failed. There has been no word from Tustin since stating that they were suspending all BAVI testing with chemotherapy combinations (while still intending to work with immunotherapy synergies). However, since there is no human clinical trial which unambiguously indicates that BAVI works, the latter has all the appearances of a Hail Mary pass.
Both sides are intelligent and savvy. For some of us who benefit from their exchanges, however, it's like watching two parallel universes collide.
At this point, unless something from Tustin management radically alters the perceptions of Wall Street as to the worth of BAVI, I'm siding with those who argue to concentrate on AVID. In several years time (the Lord willing and the 'crick don't rise: and Tustin escapes the destruction of a natural catastrophe), we may be looking at profits that would propel share price to between $7-$10 (as long as the Street gives it an average PE evaluation). I'll salvage a fraction of what were my profit expectations ("astronomical valuation" is the way King phrased it).
My main reasons for this conclusion are the following:
(1) The science men who still hold BAVI as the potential SOC have demonstrated great insight except for one crucial point: they've been wrong on BAVI at every turn. There is still, after all these years (I don't give a damn about the reasons), not one definitive human study which points to unequivocal advanced efficacy. I have no doubt about the science of flipping cells and turning on the immune system; I simply have no evidence that BAVI does it in humans (and the Street agrees with me).
(2) PPHM's drug Cotara was also hailed by the science men on this Board at the time as breakthrough technology. Then we heard it was simply the delivery method by which Cotara was administered was the problem. But Cotara sits on the shelf. Common sense tells one that if Cotara was as significant as the scientific theory articulated, the delivery system would have sure as hell been fixed and damn quickly. I have this awful sense that BAVI = Cotara in the end. Further I-O combinations will just see a new generation of investors who will be put through the same ringer as all of us (reverse splits, ATM, etc.). And even if it worked, I don't have a sufficient number of years remaining to benefit by either the drug itself or the ROI.
(3) IR recently stated that other biopharms have had similar problems with the control arm outperforming in Phase III tests. This offers no comfort to me. Garnick should have known that with his experience. This phenomenon just didn't appear recently from what's been reported on this Board. Given the Fargo fiasco, a red flag or two should have been waved regarding potential shenanigans in Phase III. As I've said, the "I'm shocked, shocked!" Casablanca routine doesn't have a good smell to it.
(4) Management's miserable treatment of retail investors since I've been invested (about 16 years) leads me to question their fundamental decency. I simply have no reason to trust them.
But for all the sincere hard work on both sides of the BAVI issue, I truly thank each and every one of you. Most of you are good and honorable and generous men (and I think, at least one woman). I owe all of you a tremendous debt of gratitude.
P.S. I'm secretly hoping that, given my luck, within hours or a few days of posting this, I will be proven completely wrong.
