Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/05 2016 EOD

Well, true to form we opened "high", immediately bounced higher and by 10:15 peaked at $1.54, leaving the stage set. Then came a re-trace of about 1/2 the range, certainly nothing outlandish, and a long flattish $1.47/9 through 13:25, after which the weakness began to develop doing $1.46 at 13:26, $1.45 at 13:53, $1.44 at 14:06, $1.41 at 14:34 and $1.40 at 15:02.

But fear not! Along with a "normal" sort of re-trace we might expect in a "normal" market, we recovered ... With A Little Help From Our Friends.

Indeed, "We Get High(er) With A Little Help From Our Friends". The most obvious "help' was 15:47's 16.5K 5 cent rise in one minute. The most beneficial may be the 15:59-ending $1.41 followed by the closing 302-share $1.46, another 5 cent rise. Many may look at a chart and exclaim "What a nice strong close - up a penny on the day into the close!".

Of course, this also sets up for another open high and go higher early on tomorrow ... before the true colors appear once again.

There were no pre-market trades.

09:30-09:44 opened with a 1,796 sell for $1.47 & another 7 trades totaling 1,055, $1.51 x 300 & $1.52 x 755. Then came 9:35's 1.8K $1.49 (new intra-day high), 9:36's 900 (same size as the AH $1.48 last night) $1.46 (new intra-day low), 9:37's ~6.5K $1.46/$1.4615, 9:40's 300 $1.46, 9:42's 1.2K $1.46, and 9:44's 200 $1.46 ended the period.

09:45-10:15 began a mostly very low/no-volume rise, doing 9:51's 650 $1.47/$1.4724, 9:53's 1K $1.4899, 9:56-:57's 1.2K $1.49, a no-trades three minutes, 10:01-:10's ~3.95K $1.48/9, and went higher-volume for 10:11-:15's ~16.6K $1.49->$1.51->$1.52->$1.54 (new intra-day highs) to end the period on 10:15's ~7.3K $1.52->$1.54.

10:16-11:01 began a rapid initial drop doing 10:16-:19's ~9.5K $1.53->$1.54->1.52->$1.51, 10:20-45's mostly flattish no-volume, some medium-volume, $1.49/$1.50, went higher-volume on 10:46-:49s ~16.5K $1.49->$1.50->$1.48, did 10:50-11:01's very low/no-volume sagging to 11:01's 900 $1.47 to end the period.

11:02-13:25 began mostly no-volume, some low-volume, $1.47/9. This was interrupted by 11:36's ~4.6K $1.48/9 and 11:37's 200 $1.49/50. At 11:40 mostly no-volume, some low-volume, continued when range narrowed to $1.48/9. This was interrupted by 11:49's ~5.5K $1.48/9, 11:59's 140 $1.50, and 12:02-:04's ~17.3K $1.48/9. 12:09-:30's 1.1K $1.47/8 drop began a low/no-volume there, interrupted by 12:13's 200 $1.48/9. A low-volume $1.48/$1.50 higher range began with 12:31-32's ~10.1K $1.47->$1.51->$1.49->$1.50, interrupted by 12:31-:47's almost exclusively no-trades (e.g 12:33-:45, 12:49-:55, ...). 13:25's 1.9K $1.47 ended the period.

13:26-14:26 began a long, slow, after the first few minutes, mostly no-volume and some low-volume, sag lower on 12:26's ~8.1K $1.48->$1.46, 13:29's ~8.2K $1.46 (match day's low so far), 13:53's ~1.3K $1.45/6 (new low), 14:06's ~5K $1.44/5 (new low), and ended the period on 14:26's ~1.9K $1.45/6.

14:27-15:02, after five no-trades minutes, did a high-volume rapid cascade lower, on 14:32's ~1.6K $1.44, 14:33's ~30.3K $1.44->$1.42 (new low), and 14:34's ~12.1K $1.42->$1.41 (new low). Then began a less frenetic sag lower when 14:35 did a small recovery up on 14:35-:38's ~8.6K $1.42->$1.43 (almost exclusively $1.42 though) and began very low/no-volume $1.41/$1.42, interrupted by 14:50's 100 $1.44, and did 15:02's 2.1K $1.41->$1.40 (new low) to end the period.

15:03-15:46 just started doing mostly low-volume, some no-volume, $1.41/3, interrupted by 15:10's 15.9K $1.40/3, 15:28's 6K $1.41, and 15:44's 11.1K $1.41/2. The period ended on 15:46's 100 $1.42.

15:47-16:00 kicked off the EOD volatility with 15:47's ~16.5K $1.41->$1.46 (NICE![ Who wouldn't be in love with a 5 cent rise in one minute on only 11K?Perfectly normal, right?. 15:48-:49 brought range back to $1.43/4 on 1.3K, 15:56-:57's ~11.3K put it back to $1.41/3, and the period and day ended on 16:00's 302 $1.46, yielding another nice 5 cent shot up from 15:59's closing $1.41 and it only took 300ish shares this time. These guys are getting more efficient at what they are doing I guess. </snark>

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 69,900, 22.03% of day's volume, with a $1.4350 VWAP.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  09:44   13738 $1.4600 $1.5200    $20,188.69 $1.4696  4.33% 27.85% 
  10:15   23399 $1.4700 $1.5400    $35,224.47 $1.5054  7.38% 64.66% 
  11:01   36258 $1.4700 $1.5400    $54,232.06 $1.4957 11.43% 54.04% Incl 10:49 $1.4800 4,200 
  13:25   66139 $1.4700 $1.5100    $98,083.09 $1.4830 20.85% 47.33% Incl 12:04 $1.4800 9,400 
  14:26   28597 $1.4400 $1.4750    $41,693.86 $1.4580  9.01% 44.24% 
  15:02   68871 $1.4000 $1.4500    $98,231.63 $1.4263 21.71% 43.23% Incl 14:33 $1.4400 5,000 18,900 
  15:46   44021 $1.4000 $1.4300    $62,145.67 $1.4117 13.88% 46.41% Incl 15:10 $1.4099 5,900 $1.4100 5,900 
                                                                         15:28 $1.4056 6,000 15:44 $1.4101 5,000 
  16:00   33707 $1.4100 $1.4600    $48,049.28 $1.4255 10.63% 45.08% Incl 15:47 $1.4127 5,000 15:56 $1.4300 4,600

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -1.34%  -2.78%  -1.91%   0.69%  -2.76% 
 Prior     -0.64%  -5.33%  -1.25%  -2.58%  17.79%

On my minimal chart we topped just above the $1.53 resistance (upper red line) on the early morning's typical push up to try and sucker folks in but, of course, couldn't hold it. The low went down to almost touch my new, and as yet not on the posted chart, rising potential support, ~$1.37 today. We then closed a penny above the open thanks to a 5 cent rise from the $1.41 15:59 by the closing buy of 302 $1.46. So on net, compared to yesterday, we had a lower high and low, flat open and higher close. It's all phony though, just like so many days.

On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline. If we hold our range it will begin to flatten some in the next couple days. I'm not betting on holding our range though. The 20-day looks to have a few more days left in it's rise, depending on how fast or price range declines, if it does so. The 50-day SMA rate of rise should continue a slow rise unless our price range tanks big-time.

The oscillators I watch had ADX-related and accumulation/distribution marginally weakened while all others improved marginally. MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic remain in oversold and the others are all below neutral.

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3811 and $1.9374 ($1.2284 and $2.2516 yesterday) continue converging and our price range began it's first "push" on the lower limit. The mid-point continues to decline as the upper limit declines faster than the lower limit rises.

All in, only the reducing volume and the oversold oscillators are offering any hope of stopping the deterioration in the share price. These are insufficient, at least in an environment such as we have ATM, to make any positive outlook reasonable. My most optimistic guess is we finally start to flatten out, but that's not my reasonable expectation. That would be continued weakening.



N.B. It occurred to me, because of the recent short percentages being 6x+%, that NYSE/Arca short may have begun reporting through the FINRA/NYSE TRF facility. I will do some analysis this weekend of historical volumes and see if there is evidence of that. It's possible that the very high short percentage is a result of adjusting for the data being missing when, after some days anyway, it was not missing but just appearing elsewhere.

Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved opposite directions, an abnormal condition. Daily short percentage is still far above my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage is still below what's needed for sustained appreciation. It is further below that range than it was the previous five days.

The spread continues to widen and was produced in the usual intra-day open high, go higher early and than fall for most of the rest of the day. This, combined with being an a down trend, suggest further near-term weakening.

VWAP movement returned to form, giving us nine negative moves in the last twelve readings.

All in, more of the same seems most likely.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill