Thursday, May 05, 2016 11:03:57 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/04 2016 EOD
Note the 11:02 intra-day comment below and that subsequently things stabilized substantially.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:47 opened the day on a 7,615 sell, and 2 odd lots for 28 more, at $1.49, did 9:32's 8.3K $1.50->$1.52->$1.49, 9:34's ~10.5K $1.50/2, 9:35-:37's no trades, 9:38-:39's 200 $1.50, 9:40-:44's no trades (bids 30 $1.48, 4K $1.47, offers 100 $1.49, $1.50, 600 $1.42), 9:45-:46's 300 $1.4895/$1.49, and 9:47's 1.1K $1.49/$.50 ended the period (b/a went 500:100 $1.51/2).
09:48-10:00, after a no-trades two minutes, began a low-volume push up when it did 9:50's 494 $1.53, 9:52-:53's ~2.2K $1.53/5, 9:54-59's mostly no, some low, volume $1.54/5, and 10:00's 100 $1.57 ended the period.
N.B. As I was typing this stuff intra-day I suspected this ended the set-up to allow the sellers to start raking chips off the table. We had only 28,069 shares traded through 9:47 and ~33K through 10:00. So 5K moved price up $0.07 over less than 15 minutes on near-zip volume - a real powerful rocket-shot, no? Note the 11:02 period below and that subsequently things stabilized substantially.
10:01-11:01, after two no-trade minutes, began a short quick drop lower when it did 10:03's 150 $1.56, 10:05's 300 $1.56, 10:07's ~11.1K $1.57->$1.55, 10:08-:29's very low/no-volume $1.54/5, 10:30's 1.2K $1.56/7, 10:31-:50's very low/no-volume sag to $1.53, and 11:01's 250 $1.53 ended the period.
11:02-11:02 did ~46.6K $1.53->$1.45->$1.47 (new intra-day low), 83.13% of all prior volume and 14.25% of the day's total volume and had a VWAP much lower than the preceding periods. From 11:01 to 11:02's end the buy percentage dropped from 56.72% to 40.90%, a very large move.
11:03-12:42 recovered on 11:03-:07's ~4.2K $1.48-$1.49->$1.50->$1.48 to begin 11:08-:31's very low/no-volume flattish $1.48/9, dropped on 11:32's 450 $$1.48->$1.47 to go very low/no-volume $1.47/8, recovered on 12:05-:07's ~10.1K $1.48->$1.49->$1.50->$1.49, did 12:08-:18's no trades, 12:19's 200 $1.49, 12:20-:28's no trades, and did 12:29-12:42's very low/no-volume $1.48/9 to end the period.
12:43-14:06 began a quick step lower doing 12:43's 250 $1.47, 12:44-12:48's almost no volume $1.47, 12:49's 1.8K $1.47->$1.46, did 12:50-13:16's wide mixed no/low/medium-volume $1.46/9, 13:17-41's very low/no-volume $1.48/9 with rising lows, 13:42-14:06's extremely low/no-volume $1.49 and 14:06's 300 $1.49 ended the period.
14:07-14:47, after a no-trades ten minutes, did a quick step lower on 14:17-:19's ~6.9K $1.49->$1.47->$1.46 and did 14:20-47's very low/no-volume $1.46/8 to end the period on 14:47's ~2K $1.46/7.
14:48-14:53 began a drop when it did 14:48's ~1.1K $1.46-$1.45 (matched low), and 14:51-53's ~21.3K $1.46->$1.45->$1.44 (new low) ended the period.
14:54-16:00 began a low, no, and medium-volume $1.44/6 on 14:54's 2K $1.45/6 and quickly compressed to $1.44/5 at 14:58, did a step up to mostly no, some low, volume $1.45/6 on 15:05's~8.8K $1.45/6, interrupted by 15:25's ~8.4K $1.44/6, moved to medium and then low volume $1.45/6 on 15:28's 5K $1.45/6, interrupted by 15:31's ~1.9K $1.46/7 and 15:47-:48's~10.4K $1.45/7, and ended the period and day with 16:00's 1.1K sell for $1.45.
There was one suspicious 19:54:46 AH 900 sell for $1.48, above the close and above the trade range in the 15:59 minute. Is it again an attempt to next day open high, sell? Do we then see crushed price intra-day?
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 76,314, 23.39% of day's volume, with a $1.4874 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 68,699, 21.06% of day's volume, with a $1.4872 VWAP.
Add in the relatively extreme intra-day high, close below the open and negatives on each of the intra-day movements ...
My best guess, based on recent history and only these factors, is our best possible outcome is "a pause" and more likely a continuation of the trend lower.
Of course that's without yet looking at everything - just considering what I mentioned, the recent (and longer-term) trend, the possibility of the ATM being active and the possibility that the financiers are still present with shares (not likely many shares left?). Adding all that in makes me stay strongly negative.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and will do so. It hasn't begun to accelerate yet. The 20-day looks to have a few more days of rise left in it's rise if we don't tank. As with yesterday, the 50-day SMA rate of rise has declined substantially but should continue a slow rise unless our price range tanks big-time.
The oscillators I watch switched from yesterday's substantially mixed to all but MFI (untrusted by me) weakening. In oversold are MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic and the others are all below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2284 and $2.2516 ($1.2822 and $2.2840 yesterday) continue diverging as the lower limit declines much more quickly than the upper limit. The mid-point is being forced downward and our trading range stopped chasing after the lower limit. I suspect this is a temporary condition and, if history is any guide, we will start "pushing" it lower as our trading generally goes to the lower limit and pushes it. This might take some days to develop though sans a big drag short-term drop in the range. With the suspected manipulation occurring for the ATM/financiers(?) benefit, I don't expect a big tanking yet.
All in, I remain very short-term negative using the above considerations.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but the short percentage is more properly considered flat and remains in the range that produced such negative results over the last two days. Surprisingly, to me anyway, the VWAP didn't fall. I suspect this is due to the manipulation of the low-volume intra-day price action which is so easily observable. I expect this will continue and could produce some short-term gains but no longer-term appreciation.
The buy percentage withdrew even further from the range needed for sustainable appreciation.
The spread widened even more and if history still holds, always uncertain when manipulation is occurring (IMO), we should continue to see a short-term trend lower, at least as long as the spread is generated by the early, high strong drop, and sag to several lower intra-day lows occurs.
VWAP movement was essentially flat. At least it broke the trend of lower. I think it's temporary though.
All in, I remain short-term negative, although the VWAP behavior suggests a break in trend, at least for now. My negativism is reinforced by the fact that VWAP held on a lower range, high short sales percentage and falling buy percentage which was already at a point where rising prices should be very unusual and suspicious.
Having said that, if the market is almost 100% manipulated now and has very few participants (HFTs and MMs predominately with maybe some ATM use and some financiers?), there's really no limit to how high it could go. HFTs and MMs don't care what the price is - they just need spread, volume and algorithms to make profits.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Note the 11:02 intra-day comment below and that subsequently things stabilized substantially.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:47 opened the day on a 7,615 sell, and 2 odd lots for 28 more, at $1.49, did 9:32's 8.3K $1.50->$1.52->$1.49, 9:34's ~10.5K $1.50/2, 9:35-:37's no trades, 9:38-:39's 200 $1.50, 9:40-:44's no trades (bids 30 $1.48, 4K $1.47, offers 100 $1.49, $1.50, 600 $1.42), 9:45-:46's 300 $1.4895/$1.49, and 9:47's 1.1K $1.49/$.50 ended the period (b/a went 500:100 $1.51/2).
09:48-10:00, after a no-trades two minutes, began a low-volume push up when it did 9:50's 494 $1.53, 9:52-:53's ~2.2K $1.53/5, 9:54-59's mostly no, some low, volume $1.54/5, and 10:00's 100 $1.57 ended the period.
N.B. As I was typing this stuff intra-day I suspected this ended the set-up to allow the sellers to start raking chips off the table. We had only 28,069 shares traded through 9:47 and ~33K through 10:00. So 5K moved price up $0.07 over less than 15 minutes on near-zip volume - a real powerful rocket-shot, no? Note the 11:02 period below and that subsequently things stabilized substantially.
10:01-11:01, after two no-trade minutes, began a short quick drop lower when it did 10:03's 150 $1.56, 10:05's 300 $1.56, 10:07's ~11.1K $1.57->$1.55, 10:08-:29's very low/no-volume $1.54/5, 10:30's 1.2K $1.56/7, 10:31-:50's very low/no-volume sag to $1.53, and 11:01's 250 $1.53 ended the period.
11:02-11:02 did ~46.6K $1.53->$1.45->$1.47 (new intra-day low), 83.13% of all prior volume and 14.25% of the day's total volume and had a VWAP much lower than the preceding periods. From 11:01 to 11:02's end the buy percentage dropped from 56.72% to 40.90%, a very large move.
11:03-12:42 recovered on 11:03-:07's ~4.2K $1.48-$1.49->$1.50->$1.48 to begin 11:08-:31's very low/no-volume flattish $1.48/9, dropped on 11:32's 450 $$1.48->$1.47 to go very low/no-volume $1.47/8, recovered on 12:05-:07's ~10.1K $1.48->$1.49->$1.50->$1.49, did 12:08-:18's no trades, 12:19's 200 $1.49, 12:20-:28's no trades, and did 12:29-12:42's very low/no-volume $1.48/9 to end the period.
12:43-14:06 began a quick step lower doing 12:43's 250 $1.47, 12:44-12:48's almost no volume $1.47, 12:49's 1.8K $1.47->$1.46, did 12:50-13:16's wide mixed no/low/medium-volume $1.46/9, 13:17-41's very low/no-volume $1.48/9 with rising lows, 13:42-14:06's extremely low/no-volume $1.49 and 14:06's 300 $1.49 ended the period.
14:07-14:47, after a no-trades ten minutes, did a quick step lower on 14:17-:19's ~6.9K $1.49->$1.47->$1.46 and did 14:20-47's very low/no-volume $1.46/8 to end the period on 14:47's ~2K $1.46/7.
14:48-14:53 began a drop when it did 14:48's ~1.1K $1.46-$1.45 (matched low), and 14:51-53's ~21.3K $1.46->$1.45->$1.44 (new low) ended the period.
14:54-16:00 began a low, no, and medium-volume $1.44/6 on 14:54's 2K $1.45/6 and quickly compressed to $1.44/5 at 14:58, did a step up to mostly no, some low, volume $1.45/6 on 15:05's~8.8K $1.45/6, interrupted by 15:25's ~8.4K $1.44/6, moved to medium and then low volume $1.45/6 on 15:28's 5K $1.45/6, interrupted by 15:31's ~1.9K $1.46/7 and 15:47-:48's~10.4K $1.45/7, and ended the period and day with 16:00's 1.1K sell for $1.45.
There was one suspicious 19:54:46 AH 900 sell for $1.48, above the close and above the trade range in the 15:59 minute. Is it again an attempt to next day open high, sell? Do we then see crushed price intra-day?
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 76,314, 23.39% of day's volume, with a $1.4874 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 68,699, 21.06% of day's volume, with a $1.4872 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:47 27965 $1.4895 $1.5200 $42,183.36 $1.5084 8.57% 72.21% Incl 09:30 $1.4900 7,615
10:00 4127 $1.5300 $1.5700 $6,362.17 $1.5416 1.27% 77.00%
11:01 23845 $1.5300 $1.5700 $36,999.21 $1.5517 7.31% 56.72% Incl 10:07 $1.5500 4,450
11:02 46500 $1.4500 $1.5350 $69,813.09 $1.5014 14.25% 40.90% Incl 11:02 $1.5000 14,386 11:02 $1.5130 4,600
11:02 $1.5200 5,000
12:42 40775 $1.4700 $1.5000 $60,356.81 $1.4802 12.50% 40.82%
14:06 65700 $1.4600 $1.4900 $96,985.79 $1.4762 20.14% 44.55% Incl 13:11 $1.4900 8,000 13:16 $1.4600 6,800
13:42 $1.4900 6,600
14:47 14470 $1.4600 $1.4900 $21,209.14 $1.4657 4.44% 42.04% Incl 14:32 $1.4607 5,000
14:53 22178 $1.4400 $1.4600 $32,167.43 $1.4504 6.80% 41.07% Incl 14:53 $1.4500 4,900
16:00 76663 $1.4400 $1.4700 $111,508.16 $1.4545 23.50% 39.73% Incl 15:05 $1.4500 4,663 :w $1.4600 4,300
19:54 900 $1.4800 $1.4800 $1,332.00 $1.4800 0.28% 39.62%
On my minimal chart we confirmed the breakdown through the $1.53 support (upper red line), but on falling volume. Normally this suggests the trend is weakening. I'm not suggesting that's not the case but I am suggesting it's more likely uncertainty in the minds of the market participants (whomever they are) reducing the trading volume. As uncertainty abates the trend could go either way and the volume would begin to increase. This behavior, if continued for sufficient time is often called "basing", "consolidation", or, in my particular vernacular, "a pause" if I expect it to last only a very short time.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -3.87% -0.69% -0.63% -3.97% -16.18%
Prior -0.64% -5.33% -1.25% -2.58% 17.79%
Add in the relatively extreme intra-day high, close below the open and negatives on each of the intra-day movements ...
My best guess, based on recent history and only these factors, is our best possible outcome is "a pause" and more likely a continuation of the trend lower.
Of course that's without yet looking at everything - just considering what I mentioned, the recent (and longer-term) trend, the possibility of the ATM being active and the possibility that the financiers are still present with shares (not likely many shares left?). Adding all that in makes me stay strongly negative.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and will do so. It hasn't begun to accelerate yet. The 20-day looks to have a few more days of rise left in it's rise if we don't tank. As with yesterday, the 50-day SMA rate of rise has declined substantially but should continue a slow rise unless our price range tanks big-time.
The oscillators I watch switched from yesterday's substantially mixed to all but MFI (untrusted by me) weakening. In oversold are MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic and the others are all below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2284 and $2.2516 ($1.2822 and $2.2840 yesterday) continue diverging as the lower limit declines much more quickly than the upper limit. The mid-point is being forced downward and our trading range stopped chasing after the lower limit. I suspect this is a temporary condition and, if history is any guide, we will start "pushing" it lower as our trading generally goes to the lower limit and pushes it. This might take some days to develop though sans a big drag short-term drop in the range. With the suspected manipulation occurring for the ATM/financiers(?) benefit, I don't expect a big tanking yet.
All in, I remain very short-term negative using the above considerations.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but the short percentage is more properly considered flat and remains in the range that produced such negative results over the last two days. Surprisingly, to me anyway, the VWAP didn't fall. I suspect this is due to the manipulation of the low-volume intra-day price action which is so easily observable. I expect this will continue and could produce some short-term gains but no longer-term appreciation.
The buy percentage withdrew even further from the range needed for sustainable appreciation.
The spread widened even more and if history still holds, always uncertain when manipulation is occurring (IMO), we should continue to see a short-term trend lower, at least as long as the spread is generated by the early, high strong drop, and sag to several lower intra-day lows occurs.
VWAP movement was essentially flat. At least it broke the trend of lower. I think it's temporary though.
All in, I remain short-term negative, although the VWAP behavior suggests a break in trend, at least for now. My negativism is reinforced by the fact that VWAP held on a lower range, high short sales percentage and falling buy percentage which was already at a point where rising prices should be very unusual and suspicious.
Having said that, if the market is almost 100% manipulated now and has very few participants (HFTs and MMs predominately with maybe some ATM use and some financiers?), there's really no limit to how high it could go. HFTs and MMs don't care what the price is - they just need spread, volume and algorithms to make profits.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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