Tuesday, May 03, 2016 11:20:16 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/03 2016 EOD
Nothing positive in today's stuff. Looking an awful lot like yesterday in my unconventional stuff.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:01 opened the day on a 6,097 sell, and a 2 & 40 share sell, for $1.55 and with b/a showing two odd-lot $1.55 & 1.54 bids and $1.53 1.4K, and offers at 13.3K $1.59, traded no more through 9:39. Then we got 9:40's 100 $1.58, 8:41-:46's no trades, 9:47-:49's ~9.4K $1.53->$1.55->$1.52->$1.50, 9:50-:51's ~7.3K $1.50->$1.52, and 9:52-:55's ~6K $1.50->$1.51. The b/a became 9.7K:3.2K $1.50/1, 9:56-:58 did no trades, did 9:59-10:00's ~12.4K $1.50, and 10:01's 250 $1.52 ended the period.
10:02-10:16, after a no-trades two minutes, did 10:04's ~9K $1.50->$1.49 (new intra-day low), 10:06-:10's ~13.5K $1.49->$1.50->$1.49, 10:11's ~7.6K $1.49/$1.52, 10:12's 5K $1.50, and 10:13-:16's low/medium/no-volume ended the period on 10:16's 200 $1.49.
10:17-10:35, after a no-trades two minutes, dropped to $1.48 on 10:19's 370 $1.48 (new intra-day low), did 10:20-:23's no trades, 10:24's ~5.9K $1.49->$1.50 and that began low volume $1.49/$1.50 through 10:30, did 10:31's ~2.6K drop $1.49->$1.48 to begin mostly no-volume, some low-volume, $1.48/$1.48xx, and ended the period on 10:35's 17.4K $1.48.
10:36-11:14, after a no-trades minute, did 10:37-:38's 12.1K $1.47->$1.4626 (new intra-day low) and began no/low-volume $1.4725/8, interrupted by 10:48's 11.5K $1.4701 and 10:53-:54's ~6.7K $1.47. 11:01-11:14 switched to mostly no, and some low, volume $1.47/8, and ended the period on 11:14's 800 $1.4650/$1.47.
11:15-12:21 began with 11:15's 34.3K $1.47->$1.46 (new intra-day low), did 11:17's ~31.5K $1.46/7, two low-volume minutes $1.46, 11:20's 2.2K $1.45->$1.47 (new intra-day low), did 11:22-:32's very low/no-volume $1.45/6, 11:33-:35's ~9K $1.46->$1.48, 11:36-12:21's mostly no volume, and some low-volume $1.47/8 to end the period on 12:21's ~2.3K $1.48.
12:22-13:03, after a no-trade minute, began a mostly no, some low, volume $1.49/$1.51 when it did 12:23's ~20.8K $1.48->$1.53->$1.50 and ended the period on 13:03's 100 $1.49.
13:04-14:04, after a no-trades two minutes, began a mostly no volume (no trades 13:08-:16, 13:30-:41, 13:43-:52), some low volume, $1.48/9 on 13:06's 200 $1.48, and did 13:24's 100 $1.49. Then did almost no volume $1.50 from 13:29's 200 $1.50 through 13:42's 100 $1.50 but came back into range on 13:53's $1.51->$1.49, did 13:56's ~3.9K $1.48, and did very low/no-volume $1.48/$1.4950 to end the period on 14:04's ~1.1K $1.48/$1.4950.
14:05-15:00, after 14:05's ~600 $1.47, 14:06-:08's ~10.9K $1.47/8, and 14:12-:15's ~11.6K $1.47->$1.48->$1.46, began very low/no-volume $1.46/$1.4750 initially (mostly high $1.46xx-$1.4750 because of a big bid imbalance, as we've seen so many times). This was interrupted by 14:49's 400 $1.47/8. At 14:55 range moved to $1.46/7 (most $1.46) on very low/no-volume and ended the period on 15:00's ~2.2K $1.46/7.
15:01-15:42, after a no-trades four minutes, did 15:05-:06's 11.4K $1.47->$1.50->$1.48->$1.49 beginning very low/no-volume $1.47/8 through 15:17, beginning $1.48/9 on 15:19's 200 $1.49, and ended the period on 15:42's 300 $1.48.
15:43-16:00 began mostly low-volume EOD volatility $1.47/$1.50 on 15:45's 14.3K $1.47/8 went $1.47/8 starting at 15:44 and ended 15:59 at $1.47/8 but closed the period and day with a buy of 433 for $1.51.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 121,213, 31.14% of day's volume, with a $1.4792 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 18 larger trades totaling 115,116, 29.58% of day's volume, with a $1.4754 VWAP.
On my minimal chart notice the old green lines are gone and I've added a new one which can be ignored for the moment. It's just a "place holder" in case a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern develops. We have the early stages of a possible development of the pattern. The line will be adjusted, or removed, as things develop or don't.
Yesterday, while considering the strength of the potential support at the $1.53 mark (upper red line) I said { However, with the earnings pre-warning recently and the by-now well-known dilution that is occurring (along with possible continued ATM usage?), I would be surprised if it holds. }
It didn't. If we close below it tomorrow that confirms support is broken and next support would likely be ...
Well, the only confirmed one is at the bottom red line, $1.15/6.
The rising blue line is a potential support but with only the origin and one touch we can't confirm it's support. It's ~$1.18 today and rises ~$0.003/day.
Given that ...
I've pencilled in a shorter-term potential rising support, not shown on the chart, that's $1.37 today and rises ~$0.006/day. It's only got an origin and two touches and only the origin has any kind of volume so I'm not sure it's any better than the green line I just removed. There's also a couple alternative constructs possible in place of the one I chose, so I'll keep an eye on it and see if a better alternative appears down the road.
Anyway, today we continued down and had rising volume, suggesting more downside is likely. Fortunately, the volume increase was small so there is the possibility we are nearing a bottom, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stuff on the one-year chart and my unconventional stuff will likely support this thought.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and will do so at an accelerating rate unless an unlikely big move up occurs. The 20-day looks to have a few more days of rise left in it unless or trading range makes a big move lower, not totally out of the question IMO. I do expect it to drop but not at a rate that precludes a few more days of rise in the 20-day SMA, albeit at a slowing pace. The 50-day SMA is now being affected and it's rate of rise has declined substantially. It should continue slow rise unless we drop into the $1.3x area pretty quickly and continue lower. With our volume on a down day rising this is possible but I don't have a thought of how likely yet.
The oscillators I watch got decidedly mixed today with improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. All improvements were small, all these are still below neutral, and MFI and Williams %R are still oversold. Marginal deterioration occurred in RSI, full stochastic and ADX-related. Full stochastic is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2822 and $2.2840 ($1.3287 and $2.3267 yesterday) continue diverging as the lower limit declines much more quickly than the upper limit. The mid-point is being forced downward and our trading range is chasing after the lower limit. If history is any guide we will start "pushing" it lower as our trading generally goes to the lower limit and pushes it.
All in, the mixed results prevent any bullish view here even though a couple oscillators suggest it. Adding in the increased volume on a down day and I think we continue lower.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved ... Buy percentage didn't move, essentially, and remains below the level I think is needed for sustained appreciation to be possible.
Short percentage fell marginally but remains in a range too similar to yesterday's to offer any suggestion of normalcy. It's still well above my desired range (needs re-check) and, combined with yesterday's similar reading, I think it answers yesterdays wondering if serious shorters were here again. I would say these readings suggest yes.
Might be a new crew though as over the last few short interest reports we had seen substantial decreases in short interest. Why would they change behavior now? I don't think they would. I suspect the financiers that took and likely sold their shares immediately into the market saw the weakness, possibly aided by unfettered use of the ATM (we'll never know for sure), decided, like the vultures in the cartoon, "Patience my ass, I'm gonna kill something", and started shorting. Since they likely got all their original investment back, along with some profit, they likely see the opportunity presented by very weak market support as low risk and are shorting the crap out of this.
DJ & Co. knew not what they wrought when they started down this path. Or maybe just didn't care.
Anyway, the turning point will come when the current crop of shorters decide to lock in profit by doing covering buys, if I'm right about what's going on. Let's hope that's their intention rather than driving price into the ground.
The spread opened up again and was produced in the usual least desirable fashion - large and semi-continues stepping down throughout most of the day. Being we're in a down trend, this suggests more weakness is likely.
VWAP movement continued the trend lower and we're in the area seen 4/4. Didn't take long to drop from 4/18's VWAP of ~$2.45 did it?
All in, nothing suggestive of good times ahead.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Nothing positive in today's stuff. Looking an awful lot like yesterday in my unconventional stuff.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:01 opened the day on a 6,097 sell, and a 2 & 40 share sell, for $1.55 and with b/a showing two odd-lot $1.55 & 1.54 bids and $1.53 1.4K, and offers at 13.3K $1.59, traded no more through 9:39. Then we got 9:40's 100 $1.58, 8:41-:46's no trades, 9:47-:49's ~9.4K $1.53->$1.55->$1.52->$1.50, 9:50-:51's ~7.3K $1.50->$1.52, and 9:52-:55's ~6K $1.50->$1.51. The b/a became 9.7K:3.2K $1.50/1, 9:56-:58 did no trades, did 9:59-10:00's ~12.4K $1.50, and 10:01's 250 $1.52 ended the period.
10:02-10:16, after a no-trades two minutes, did 10:04's ~9K $1.50->$1.49 (new intra-day low), 10:06-:10's ~13.5K $1.49->$1.50->$1.49, 10:11's ~7.6K $1.49/$1.52, 10:12's 5K $1.50, and 10:13-:16's low/medium/no-volume ended the period on 10:16's 200 $1.49.
10:17-10:35, after a no-trades two minutes, dropped to $1.48 on 10:19's 370 $1.48 (new intra-day low), did 10:20-:23's no trades, 10:24's ~5.9K $1.49->$1.50 and that began low volume $1.49/$1.50 through 10:30, did 10:31's ~2.6K drop $1.49->$1.48 to begin mostly no-volume, some low-volume, $1.48/$1.48xx, and ended the period on 10:35's 17.4K $1.48.
10:36-11:14, after a no-trades minute, did 10:37-:38's 12.1K $1.47->$1.4626 (new intra-day low) and began no/low-volume $1.4725/8, interrupted by 10:48's 11.5K $1.4701 and 10:53-:54's ~6.7K $1.47. 11:01-11:14 switched to mostly no, and some low, volume $1.47/8, and ended the period on 11:14's 800 $1.4650/$1.47.
11:15-12:21 began with 11:15's 34.3K $1.47->$1.46 (new intra-day low), did 11:17's ~31.5K $1.46/7, two low-volume minutes $1.46, 11:20's 2.2K $1.45->$1.47 (new intra-day low), did 11:22-:32's very low/no-volume $1.45/6, 11:33-:35's ~9K $1.46->$1.48, 11:36-12:21's mostly no volume, and some low-volume $1.47/8 to end the period on 12:21's ~2.3K $1.48.
12:22-13:03, after a no-trade minute, began a mostly no, some low, volume $1.49/$1.51 when it did 12:23's ~20.8K $1.48->$1.53->$1.50 and ended the period on 13:03's 100 $1.49.
13:04-14:04, after a no-trades two minutes, began a mostly no volume (no trades 13:08-:16, 13:30-:41, 13:43-:52), some low volume, $1.48/9 on 13:06's 200 $1.48, and did 13:24's 100 $1.49. Then did almost no volume $1.50 from 13:29's 200 $1.50 through 13:42's 100 $1.50 but came back into range on 13:53's $1.51->$1.49, did 13:56's ~3.9K $1.48, and did very low/no-volume $1.48/$1.4950 to end the period on 14:04's ~1.1K $1.48/$1.4950.
14:05-15:00, after 14:05's ~600 $1.47, 14:06-:08's ~10.9K $1.47/8, and 14:12-:15's ~11.6K $1.47->$1.48->$1.46, began very low/no-volume $1.46/$1.4750 initially (mostly high $1.46xx-$1.4750 because of a big bid imbalance, as we've seen so many times). This was interrupted by 14:49's 400 $1.47/8. At 14:55 range moved to $1.46/7 (most $1.46) on very low/no-volume and ended the period on 15:00's ~2.2K $1.46/7.
15:01-15:42, after a no-trades four minutes, did 15:05-:06's 11.4K $1.47->$1.50->$1.48->$1.49 beginning very low/no-volume $1.47/8 through 15:17, beginning $1.48/9 on 15:19's 200 $1.49, and ended the period on 15:42's 300 $1.48.
15:43-16:00 began mostly low-volume EOD volatility $1.47/$1.50 on 15:45's 14.3K $1.47/8 went $1.47/8 starting at 15:44 and ended 15:59 at $1.47/8 but closed the period and day with a buy of 433 for $1.51.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 121,213, 31.14% of day's volume, with a $1.4792 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 18 larger trades totaling 115,116, 29.58% of day's volume, with a $1.4754 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period _Per. Trade Period_ % Day_ PerEnd
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:01 41656 $1.4990 $1.5800 $63,152.94 $1.5161 10.70% 27.44% Incl 09:30 $1.5500 6,097
10:16 39839 $1.4900 $1.5200 $59,640.50 $1.4970 10.24% 38.44% Incl 10:10 $1.4900 5,000 10:12 $1.5010 5,000
10:35 40955 $1.4799 $1.5024 $60,919.24 $1.4875 10.52% 41.01% Incl 10:24 $1.5002 5,000 10:35 $1.4800 5,000
11:14 36790 $1.4626 $1.4800 $54,026.13 $1.4685 9.45% 34.21% Incl 10:37 $1.4630 5,700
10:38 $1.4638 5,000 10:48 $1.4701 7,500 4,000
12:21 107316 $1.4500 $1.4800 $156,933.35 $1.4623 27.57% 45.33% Incl 11:15 $1.4600 6,300 5,000 6,900 5,000
11:17 $1.4600 7,600 16,916 11:24 $1.4599 4,300
13:03 30791 $1.4800 $1.5300 $46,492.46 $1.5099 7.91% 48.89% Incl 12:23 $1.5300 11,000
14:04 11584 $1.4800 $1.5100 $17,167.57 $1.4820 2.98% 47.80% Incl 13:21 $1.4800 4,900
15:00 35032 $1.4600 $1.4900 $51,517.21 $1.4706 9.00% 46.33% Incl 14:08 $1.4800 5,000
15:42 18840 $1.4650 $1.5000 $27,847.67 $1.4781 4.84% 46.64%
16:00 22006 $1.4700 $1.5100 $32,577.13 $1.4804 5.65% 47.24%
It's time for a new minimal chart ...__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.64% -5.33% -1.25% -2.58% 17.79%
Prior -7.69% -1.19% -5.33% -1.27% -45.85%
On my minimal chart notice the old green lines are gone and I've added a new one which can be ignored for the moment. It's just a "place holder" in case a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern develops. We have the early stages of a possible development of the pattern. The line will be adjusted, or removed, as things develop or don't.
Yesterday, while considering the strength of the potential support at the $1.53 mark (upper red line) I said { However, with the earnings pre-warning recently and the by-now well-known dilution that is occurring (along with possible continued ATM usage?), I would be surprised if it holds. }
It didn't. If we close below it tomorrow that confirms support is broken and next support would likely be ...
Well, the only confirmed one is at the bottom red line, $1.15/6.
The rising blue line is a potential support but with only the origin and one touch we can't confirm it's support. It's ~$1.18 today and rises ~$0.003/day.
Given that ...
I've pencilled in a shorter-term potential rising support, not shown on the chart, that's $1.37 today and rises ~$0.006/day. It's only got an origin and two touches and only the origin has any kind of volume so I'm not sure it's any better than the green line I just removed. There's also a couple alternative constructs possible in place of the one I chose, so I'll keep an eye on it and see if a better alternative appears down the road.
Anyway, today we continued down and had rising volume, suggesting more downside is likely. Fortunately, the volume increase was small so there is the possibility we are nearing a bottom, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stuff on the one-year chart and my unconventional stuff will likely support this thought.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and will do so at an accelerating rate unless an unlikely big move up occurs. The 20-day looks to have a few more days of rise left in it unless or trading range makes a big move lower, not totally out of the question IMO. I do expect it to drop but not at a rate that precludes a few more days of rise in the 20-day SMA, albeit at a slowing pace. The 50-day SMA is now being affected and it's rate of rise has declined substantially. It should continue slow rise unless we drop into the $1.3x area pretty quickly and continue lower. With our volume on a down day rising this is possible but I don't have a thought of how likely yet.
The oscillators I watch got decidedly mixed today with improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. All improvements were small, all these are still below neutral, and MFI and Williams %R are still oversold. Marginal deterioration occurred in RSI, full stochastic and ADX-related. Full stochastic is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2822 and $2.2840 ($1.3287 and $2.3267 yesterday) continue diverging as the lower limit declines much more quickly than the upper limit. The mid-point is being forced downward and our trading range is chasing after the lower limit. If history is any guide we will start "pushing" it lower as our trading generally goes to the lower limit and pushes it.
All in, the mixed results prevent any bullish view here even though a couple oscillators suggest it. Adding in the increased volume on a down day and I think we continue lower.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved ... Buy percentage didn't move, essentially, and remains below the level I think is needed for sustained appreciation to be possible.
Short percentage fell marginally but remains in a range too similar to yesterday's to offer any suggestion of normalcy. It's still well above my desired range (needs re-check) and, combined with yesterday's similar reading, I think it answers yesterdays wondering if serious shorters were here again. I would say these readings suggest yes.
Might be a new crew though as over the last few short interest reports we had seen substantial decreases in short interest. Why would they change behavior now? I don't think they would. I suspect the financiers that took and likely sold their shares immediately into the market saw the weakness, possibly aided by unfettered use of the ATM (we'll never know for sure), decided, like the vultures in the cartoon, "Patience my ass, I'm gonna kill something", and started shorting. Since they likely got all their original investment back, along with some profit, they likely see the opportunity presented by very weak market support as low risk and are shorting the crap out of this.
DJ & Co. knew not what they wrought when they started down this path. Or maybe just didn't care.
Anyway, the turning point will come when the current crop of shorters decide to lock in profit by doing covering buys, if I'm right about what's going on. Let's hope that's their intention rather than driving price into the ground.
The spread opened up again and was produced in the usual least desirable fashion - large and semi-continues stepping down throughout most of the day. Being we're in a down trend, this suggests more weakness is likely.
VWAP movement continued the trend lower and we're in the area seen 4/4. Didn't take long to drop from 4/18's VWAP of ~$2.45 did it?
All in, nothing suggestive of good times ahead.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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