Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

SunTrust Robinson Q1-2016 Preview

- We raised 1Q16 sales to $30.1M (from $26.9M) vs. the Street’s $26.7M & lowered our LPS to -$0.11 (from -$0.12) vs. Street’s -$0.11 on higher sales. We maintained our FY2016E sales/LPS at $121.6M/-$0.34 (vs AMRN’s $105M- $120M range) vs. Street’s $125.5M/-$0.40. Our 1Q16E Vascepa sales are $29.6M (+$3.2M, +90% YoY vs. TRx growth +53% YoY +12% price) as the ANCHOR & JELIS promotion ramps. Interim read out of the REDUCE-IT trial is the next catalyst. Reiterate Buy/$6PT, supported by DCF.

- AMRN's ascent is one that could be interesting for a few Big Pharma that have a presence in primary care due to the LOE’s on the statins, & other TG lowering agents like Tricor & Lovaza . AMRN's Vascepa therefore may appear very attractive to suitors. On the competitive front, Omthera was FDA approved in May 2014, but is not yet marketed due to supply issues.


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