Sunday, May 01, 2016 3:26:53 AM
"1. The price rises modestly to the upper trend line around $1.94 but fails to penetrate it and fails to close above the 200MA. The price is marked down over the course of the next several days/week or two to the support at $1.73. It bounces off the support on high volume and back up we go."
The price did indeed rise modestly to the upper trend line to a high of $1.96, failed to penetrate it and failed to close above the 200MA at $1.87. The price was then marked down to a low of $1.82 and a close at $1.83.
Next week look for a further modest mark-down in price before the earnings report. There is strong support in the $1.82 to $1.73 range so im looking for that support to hold, particularly at $1.80 which marks the support on the lower ascending trend line that I have drawn (I wouldnt rule out a rapid mark-down to $1.73 to catch out tight stop losses so be on your toes ready for that) and then an immediate bounce back up to the $1.90's in anticipation of the earnings report on Thursday.
Although we closed lower for the week, the accompanying volume wasnt anything to be concerned about which is why I am very confident in seeing the stock price rebound next week. Look for a close above $1.92 on Tuesday/Wednesday and if it does, don't be surprised to see it blow its lid off on Thursday/Friday.
Management could provide updated guidance regarding the status of the 967th event and whether or not it has been officially adjudicated yet or not. If it has been that may be just the catalyst to set this thing alight.
The IBB broke through the support to close at 268. I see it making a modest down move to the lower ascending support line at 264 and then rebounding back up again next week. Look at the volume once it hits 264 and that will tell you loud and clear whether it goes higher or lower from there.
I fully expect poor old Sarepta to be absolutely mauled though. There's a sitting duck if ever I saw one.
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