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Re: noelan_s09 post# 75607

Thursday, 03/24/2016 8:03:54 PM

Thursday, March 24, 2016 8:03:54 PM

Post# of 426454
Well said. Back to business. It appears that the average composite rate through first 967 events will be around 4.5 - 4.7. So,

Composite rate 4.5%, placebo rate / RRR:

5.0 / 20%
5.3 / 30%
5.6 / 39%
5.9 / 47%


Composite rate 4.7%, placebo rate / RRR:

5.0 / 12%
5.3 / 23%
5.6 / 32%
5.9 / 41%


The absolutely worst case scenario is composite rate 4.9% (highly unlikely), placebo rate / RRR:

5.0 / 4%
5.3 / 15%
5.6 / 25%
5.9 / 34%


It appears to me that as long as the placebo rate is in mid 5s, we're golden. Any opinions?
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