Terrific post from another board -
Worst case scenarios?
by actioncaster_com • 8 hours ago Flag
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At this point, there's really only two outlier scenarios that longs have to fear:
1. The entirety of this is an utter sham and Missling has been manufacturing a completely false narrative this entire time. Likelihood: extremely slim to nonexistant given the scientific publications corroborating the company's narrative and the researchers who've tacked their names to them. Not to mention that the ensuing legal onslaught would be massive and (for once) justified, and there's near zero incentive to invite that kind of woe upon oneself. If someone is driven by a profit motive above ethics, there are much easier ways to go about it (that have much less visibility or likelihood of repercussions) than making false statements as head of a public company.
2. 2-73 goes on to Phase III ***for AD*** and results (again, ***for AD***) don't materialize in a larger population as they have in Phase IIa/b (should be IIa, PART A & PART B). Likelihood: not impossible -HOWEVER-... we know several facts:
There is a real, confirmed mechanism of action with 2-73. Full stop. It affects significant cellular mechanisms (mechanisms which aren't solely associated with AD, more on that in a bit) and have a measurable micro and macro effect (recall Missling's salient observation that the minor dizziness reported is a fantastic indicator of this). Anecdotal evidence of an improvement in mood and disposition is extremely telling as well, if one understands the role other SIgma agonists out there play (I leave it to the reader to do some Googling for "Sigma agonist").
We also have the benefit of hindsight with respect to the groupthink that pervaded Alzheimer's research; the overabundance of amyloid plaque being misinterpreted as root cause vs what we now understand to be a symptom of a deeper underlying malfunction in the cellular machinery. We've seen all the pharma superstars throw everything they had at removal of amyloid plaque (to the exclusion of literally all else), as if wiping away sweat could somehow eliminate a malarial infection. And we've seen that approach fail, completely. Not all that surprising, in hindsight.
There are other, highly qualified posters who have gone into great detail over the past few months regarding the mechanisms of Alzheimer's disease and 2-73's mechanism(s) of action (do a board search for:
Excitotoxicity & Calcium Overload
Oxidative Stress
Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress
Reactive Gliosis)
There are compelling odds that A2-73's MOA could have a significant positive effect at mitigating the true underlying causes of Alzheimer's. It is *not* hard to believe that Big Pharma went, like a herd of lemmings, down a blind alley and overlooked a lone scientist who took a more productive path. The first half of that is confirmed already. BUT EVEN IF, at the conclusion of an expanded Phase III trial, A2-73's effects are not as phenomenal as early data suggests, the current Standard Of Care (Donepezil) is effectively snake oil. It does next to nothing to halt or even mitigate the progression of Alzheimer's (and forget about "cure"). **ANY** benefit seen from A2-73, **AT ALL**, would be massive, relative to the current, no-hope, no benefit SOC.
Other posters have observed the dollar amount of the market for Alzheimer's "treatments;" for those unfamiliar, it is positively massive. Let's further assume the worst and ignore the mounting likelihood that A2-73 will hit the (very wide, very close) target with Alzheimer's. A2-73 is NOT JUST ABOUT ALZHEIMER'S.
The list of indications where A2-73 could be effective is ever-expanding. First there was Parkinson's. Then epilepsy. Now Rett Syndrome. Any of these alone would be intriguing; all of them together is extremely compelling. And these are only diseases the company has prioritized; the probability A2-73 could impact Huntingtons, ALS, **depression** is significant, IMO. The likelihood of A2-73 being a one-trick pony becomes slimmer and slimmer the more one understands its neuroprotective effects.
There are some very vocal posters manufacturing all manner of frivolous, baseless, and intentionally misleading "risks" associated with AVXL. Some of these posters are incapable of seeing the big picture here, as laid out above. They have blindly taken a stance, based on (unrelated) past experience with microcap biotechs, that may have served them well on these past occasions. There are others that have some idea how financially treacherous their contrary position will likely turn out, over the long run. Still others are acutely aware of the upside potential here, and desperately want to accumulate at the lowest possible price (accomplished by achieving a critical mass of doubt in someone holding AVXL shares and compelling them to sell). All have real motivation to do what they do. Anyone new here, use this as an outline and research all these points for yourself. Traders, go ahead and trade. Investors, go ahead and invest. Don't let these clowns affect what you do, though. GL to all the sincere posters out there!
