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Re: getarealjob post# 443

Thursday, 03/03/2016 4:47:26 PM

Thursday, March 03, 2016 4:47:26 PM

Post# of 1296
Right now there it about $7.30/share in tangible book value. RJET had been profitable up until this past quarter. Their primary problem lies with the fact that they need to pay their pilots more because there are fewer qualified regional pilots under the new licensing requirements. This makes flying smaller planes, like turboprops and E145s, less economical. All regional airlines are facing this same issue and will face costs as they transition some flying to larger aircraft. Where Republic faces a bigger problem is the fact that it's flying under all fixed-fee code sharing contracts that were made before the pilot shortage and the resultant higher wages. However all their major airline partners have shown willingness to renegotiate these contracts. This just needs to be worked out in the bankruptcy.

From what I'm seeing, there really is no major threat to the shareholders. There is plenty of demand for the services Republic is providing. They just need fix the contracts and abandon some of the smaller aircraft for more of the bigger E175s that they already have on order. It's not a case where their business is failing, they are on the brink of insolvency, and creditors are knocking down the door to be made whole at the expense of shareholders. It's a plain and simple restructuring.

The only detriment that I can see coming to shareholders is maybe some kind of dilution to compensate E145 lessors who may be prompted to take back their jets. But this is just speculation on my part, and it probably wouldn't be a huge amount anyway. Let's not forget that this is a company that made $1.33 EPS in 2014, before the pilot shortage issue really took hold. I suspect that they will come out of bankruptcy restructured to be profitable once again.

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