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Re: hingfdiuh post# 7494

Monday, 02/15/2016 11:58:13 AM

Monday, February 15, 2016 11:58:13 AM

Post# of 7895
I tend to think there are two possible scenarios here.

The first is that the family will buy out the remaining public portion of shares not owned by the family. They have the cash ($13.2 million plus $4 million when the real estate gets sold) to be able to buy out the non-family shares (17.35 million less 10.345 million = 7 million shares) at up to $2.45 per share. While I don't think they would offer that much, $1.75 - $2.00 per share is likely closer to a realistic offer at this point in time. That would leave them with 100% ownership of the business that is essentially run like a private family owned business anyway without the obligations to report financials publicly. The business would also be left with a sufficient cash cushion to invest and grow as they see fit.

The second is the eventual sale to a third party. The other public companies in their space (Bisalloy and Bradken) both trade at significantly higher EV / EBITDA multiples (5x - 6x). A sale to a third party at a 5x EBITDA multiple would result in a share price of in the range of $2.25 to $2.75, assuming a Q1 2016 run-rate performance (trailing twelve month EBITDA is actually higher, due to a monster Q2 in 2015). I don't think the conditions are right at the moment to sell to a third party, so I feel this is a less likely option in the near-term, but definitely something that might happen in the future (2-3 years from now once the materials industry stabilizes). A sale to a third party would allow the family to move on to other interests.

Both scenarios point to a solid ROI from the current levels, even if it takes 2-3 years to happen (if it does take that long, the company is adding $0.10 - $0.15 per share in cash to the balance sheet at this rate every year, so the values I list above would be that much higher).

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