Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[tradero]

JQ thanks for your post, let me reply to you (from my point of view)

I agree that we are basing our calculations on two basic assumptions:

1. The enrolment model based mostly on the dates Hospitals signed in for Sunrise. The resulting curve is a "hockey stick" type as expected from Shan and the start and end points of the curve are the same than the real one. The error I think can be acceptable

2. Statistically speaking, the Placebo Arm will behave similarly than the Placebo Arm at Herbst et all trial, where patient population were same number and type.

The methods applied to these assumptions were different. And in my case I DID take into account the dropped out numbers. These data I got them from the Opdivo trial which I find quite similar to Sunrise (see chart below)

Now. Am I stating that these numbers will be accurate? NO! But, if statistics are good for something they can give us some sort of order of magnitude. Of course all in my opinion (my humble opinion actually)

But I appreciate any comment that can help improving the numbers. And as Golfho said, hey! this is just for the sake of making predictions while we wait. Noone should make a buying / selling decision based on this. I dont know about the others, but I have no experience in clinical trials and there may be unexpected "things" (like the Sabotage ... ughh) that we may not be aware of right now. I am just an engineer who has some experience making calculations outside the clinical realm. So anyone who can point out to whatever that might have been forgotten please let us know!