Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jq1234]

>> We (You, Tradero and I) are arriving at the same conclusion. All three of us, in different ways arrived at very similar projections.


Because you are using same method with similar assumptions. There are so many factors you are NOT taking into consideration. Let me just point out one: you are not taking consideration of dropout patients who will never event for OS no matter how long you wait.

Scroll back to my previous posting, at least 8 patients on bavi 3mg/kg arm either lost to follow up or withdrew consent, almost 20% of total 41 patients on this arm. The rate on control arm was lower. These information are not given explicitly but can tell from K-M curve. PPHM did give discontinuation rate due to AE, 22% on 3mg/kg arm, 11% on control arm, but don't know whether all of these patients were lost to follow up or withdrew consent as some might stay for OS follow up even after discontinuation of treatment. If PPHM had given detailed disposition, these numbers would be clear. Thus even if using mOS to calculate events is correct which isn't, actual event rate would be much lower than you projected because of dropout. In other words, event rate lower than expected isn't necessarily due to patients live longer than expected rather dropout rate higher than expected. If you just focus on mOS alone, your conclusion is likely false.

For reference, nivolumab vs docetaxel in 2nd line non-squamous trial disposition: total 8 patients lost to follow up or withdrew consent out of 582 patients, 4 on each arm.