NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[OutsideLane]

My point is that patients are wiling to pay for clinically significant benefits, and in the case of cancer that means they live longer. Patients are less likely to pay for statistically significant but non clinically significant benefits. Having a smaller tumor, or a tumor taking longer to regrow might be important, but if the patient's length of life isn't extended then the patient is less likely to pay exorbitant sums. A patient might be willing to pay for improved quality of life even if life isn't extended.

Applying this to NWBO: If the vaccine extends the patients' lives by a measurable amount then it is very likely to achieve commercial success. If however it keeps the tumor away for 12 months (PFS), but doesn't extend life (OS) beyond placebo then it is doubtful it would achieve any commercial success. Hence, while PFS might be statistically significant, it is only valuable if combined with a worthwhile overall survival benefit (clinically significant), even if that OS benefit isn't statistically significant.