McDermott International Inc. (MCDIF)

[jugs]

While I can't see that you're wrong about any of this, I do think a lot of investors are concerned with the length of time it could take for a meaningful oil turnaround. This morning, by way of example, I thought about adding to MDR and SDLP, both of which are candidates on my short hit-list. And I've held back in part as my dry powder is in short supply. However, there's that voice in the back of my mind that refuses to be quieted, asking:

"Hold on, friend---how will you feel if oil stagnates until mid-Fall and your hands are tied because you mortgaged the future buying when only part of the picture had been revealed?"

There comes a time when each of us must confront conditions known as OOPS ---aka "out of powder syndromes." So OOPS has me firmly in the net at the moment with but little wiggle room available. Of course, I'll spring for a hit list favorite should it take a hard hit but we're talking about a major swoon. Examples would be MDR in the low $2+, NGL sub $11 and SDLP at $2.35.

For now I wait and watch, just in case something really pops. And I do believe oil must turn around eventually but I'm not convinced it must happen before October---unless terrorist activity is deeply humbled with world peace and security becomes commonplace. Lacking such an unlikely turn-around event, I figure only a harsh Winter will add pressure to the oil glut of the moment.

Thus I can see people moving very cautiously and conservatively as they/we try to place our funds into vehicles likely to reward soon as well as in the Summer and then...Fall. There's something to be said for a person's not wishing to find his funds being "managed" by oil's turn-around thinking to the exclusion of smart business management as deployed by the companies whose stock we own. Personally I try to consider the impact of both corporate management and market cyclicality. But there doesn't seem to be a force out there handling the coordination of both concerns so I have little choice but to employ a bit of conservatism here.