PPS-will-move-relative-to-analyst-valuations-and-US-TAM-upon-FDA-clearance
Agree with comments excluding the PPS
Opinion is PPS will have 3 waves with long tail upon FDA clearance
1st wave will be FDA approval speculation, likely 10X current PPS relative to OS. Meaning if clearance is deferred for another year, which is possible, the OS will have increased and PPS decreased proportionally. This 1st wave will last 2-3 weeks after FDA announces.
2nd wave will be once frantic speculation and analysis is executed then the true valuation will be derived based on sales/profits and US TAM --> Total Addressable Market" Best comparative TAM would be Icy-Hot Smart TENS device. Does matter device uses different mechanism, the point is addressing similar market. Think all the different Viagra products, they are all after the same market. This 2nd wave will last 1-2 months after FDA announces.
So, let's say Icy-Hot has $200M US sales, then Acti-Patch would be after the same market and the Biel valuation would reflect this revenue share. Realize, Acti-Patch aint gonna get Shaq as the spokes/media person... ;) So, be realistic in expectations.
3rd wave is the long settling tail, say 6-18 months after FDA approval, this is where rubber meets the road and if Biel can execute. Opinion is product simply does not have the demand necessary to sustain PPS levels that will be reached upon FDA speculation. IE: sub-penny valuation after 3rd wave long tail regresses to mean.
3rd wave
