Friday, January 08, 2016 10:37:05 AM
I think that answer depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon for needing the cash.
I use a duel approach to manage my wife's retirement and my retirement. As you know, I attempt to use intermediate market-timing methods to manage my TSP. For my wife's account, I use a modified buy and hold approach supplemented with a long-term market timing method.
For example, my wife has been fully invested since April 2009. I primarily use the below chart to help me decide when to leave and enter. As the chart shows, it gave a sell signal at the end of Aug 15. I have left her in the market "hoping" Mr. Market would consolidate and then continue the march up. Since I ignored the Aug signal because of quantitative easing being in effect, my new line in the sand for a sell is an end of month breach of 1867.
If this sell signal happens, I'm expecting a drawdown to stabilize in the following range: 1331-1226.
I use a duel approach to manage my wife's retirement and my retirement. As you know, I attempt to use intermediate market-timing methods to manage my TSP. For my wife's account, I use a modified buy and hold approach supplemented with a long-term market timing method.
For example, my wife has been fully invested since April 2009. I primarily use the below chart to help me decide when to leave and enter. As the chart shows, it gave a sell signal at the end of Aug 15. I have left her in the market "hoping" Mr. Market would consolidate and then continue the march up. Since I ignored the Aug signal because of quantitative easing being in effect, my new line in the sand for a sell is an end of month breach of 1867.
If this sell signal happens, I'm expecting a drawdown to stabilize in the following range: 1331-1226.
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