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Monday, December 28, 2015 8:37:52 AM
Myself I am a gambler and take huge risks, so seeing the $ anomalies makes me worry for anyone doing the same here. The immunotherapies, and this stock in particular, draw in a lot of very good personalities that do tend to lead more with their hearts in spite of being very intelligent. Those aren't the kind of people that you want to see crying down the road. So anything that looks out of sorts begs caution against being overweight.
That said, I would agree that tooling is unbelievably expensive, and most of that expense goes to design. And I would agree that it would be reasonable for Northwest to pay for that tooling, both the design and the build, as long as they own it afterwards.
In mechanical, when people first learn what it costs to have a mold designed and produced they are usually shocked. In Electronics, the design of a test fixture for a circuit can cost substantially more, and take substantially longer than the design of the product itself. I know that for certain because I recently designed a test fixture for a product that I had designed.
Somebody could argue that Cognate was already in production before Woodford... but that is misleading. LP stated months ago that they were still 2 years from having full automation for DCVax-L. That means that a great deal of development is ongoing, and could be at peak levels at this moment. So... I would agree that everything lines up with your assertion / your proposed explanation for the recent high expenditures to Cognate.
I just don't know what magnitude of $ is plausible, but again... tooling is famously more expensive than people can imagine.
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