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Re: Pyrrhonian post# 48681

Sunday, 12/27/2015 7:20:20 PM

Sunday, December 27, 2015 7:20:20 PM

Post# of 726411
I was trying to stay as far from the detail as I could.

IMUC has put X patients through trials (all phase 1, 2 trials for all drugs). They have spent Y dollars in their lifetime. One would expect that trial costs would account for Z percent of total $ spent by the company from birth. So their trial costs per patient are (very) roughly ZY/X.

If your correction of roughly double the end-trial patients being cared for is right, then the estimate becomes ZY/2X.

I certainly agree that Northwest's trial costs are off the map. Something is wrong. However, I do not agree that their DCVax-L process should be relatively cheap. I don't think that is true, and many critics in the past specifically pointed to the high cost of dealing with both DC's and tumor samples.

In the end, I think the debate about cost will likely come down to exactly the issues you are debating with RK. What of Cognate's expenses should be passed on to Northwest.

I wouldn't agree that Northwest should not have to pay any of the mfg development costs. As far as I know, out here in Silicon Valley, the parent company does pay for test fixture development, and for the build of the test fixture, but in the end they own the test fixture and all associated patents. The parent company might design the test fixture themselves, or may contract the design out to the contract manufacturer. Usually more of the former, but something in between. But in all cases, the parent company would own the test fixture, and again, all associated process patents, as far as I know.

That may be where much debate lies in the future. That, and similar questions about land and buildings. If Northwest paid for it, but it is now in Cognates name, then something is wrong. I think that one has been pointed out.

I don't like moving down these paths while a bunch of people are under water. This is not a good time to say negative things. If you started saying these things long ago, while the SP was higher, which is likely, then you are in a different situation. So... I have to look for a silver lining and then back off I suppose. I wanted to go on random-walkabout through all these issues as I returned to focus on NWBO... but it is not a good time to do that. I add to much noise. Probably less significance than I realize... but still probably not a good time to randomly bounce around, loudly.

The silver lining is... months ago when Woodford came aboard people got very excited and the SP rose. It rose because his involvement meant the company had likely been thoroughly veted by a major leaguer... and because his large presence provided security in other ways. Well, one out of two isn't bad. He is seeing that these issues get resolved. He doesn't have preferred or otherwise special stock as far as I know. And he is not private owner of half of Cognate, as far as I know. So... he is going to set things right for people like him which includes regular old retail shareholders... probably. So... everything will be ok, probably.
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