SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[imiloa]

good observations. agreed that the drop will likely come in waves with retrace bounces.
re: timelines, given massive carry trade debt, bank leveraged assets, and weak economy, i wouldn't be surprised to see the first slide of this correction be fairly steep over a few months.

esp if the fed does raise the rate weds
as that will have immediate negative impact on the jan/feb earnings season.
and put a lot of banks in a serious debt pickle.

some banks might implode, 2008 style,
causing a domino affect of leverage assets become suddenly worthless.

in 2007, there was at least a relatively strong labor economy in place before the crash.
in this case, wages are lower,
unemployment is slightly higher,
and consumer debt is higher.

time will tell how the house of cards tumbles...