Alpha Natural Resources, Inc.(fka ANRZQ)

[MattySR]

Meanwhile, shareholder's equity value continues to get revised downwards every other month.

No @$#!, every coal company is writing off its assets during this time. Arch just announced a 1 billion write off! ANR had its biggest write off in August, 600 million. (the month they announced bankruptcy) and since then write offs have slowed drastically.

Still, anyone investing in ANR MUST expect write offs and the balance sheet to look "ugly" for the next 6-9 months. Thats just how it is right now in coal.

The bet is a reversal in the coal market.

You are assuming that $70m investment is basically cash

Your dam right I am assuming that. You think ANR and its DIP lenders AND creditors will allow risky investments in Bankruptcy? No way.

If the $70m was put into bonds

Likely,

that cashflow is negligible in the current low rate environment

I assume a like minded security like a US treasury or some A+++ Corporate bond, so ya 2-3%. It is still cash flow. Better then .5-1% sitting in their bank accounts.

Meanwhile, shareholder's equity value continues to get revised downwards every other month.

Again, this is expected with write offs. And the "revised downard" is slowing as well according to the 3 MOR's we have gotten, and coal prices ARE plateauing at the moment (albeit plateauing at lows)

Regardless, I would not be surprised in the slightest if ANR continued to write off assets in the short term, 0-6 months.

It is naive for you to say ANR is a bad investment for long term when you could not possibly predict how the markets will be in 1+ year.

And it's naive for anyone here to say "this is a sure thing"

I think we can both agree that if a Plan of Reorganization came out today, equity would without a doubt be
wiped out. But that will not be the case. POR will be in a year or so, and confirmation even LONGER then that.

Now, as for the purchase of the Nat. Gas venture for 126 million. this one is interesting because Nat gas. prices will rebound faster then coal prices. So that venture will be worth more IMO when POR comes, late 2016.