I don't see anything good here anymore...really. Dead cat bounce maybe in the lower end of the spectrum...
I think it was a perfect storm of uninformed people buying into a purposefully misleading and well orchestrated media blackout.
Q1, Lacey said "encouraged by the green shoots if you will". (Well those apparently got stomped out- this was misleading)
Q2, Lacey said something to the effect of having the financial house in order now.... (This was very misleading...the financial house is a disaster...breached the covenants of the loan...out of cash..need money...margins and revs are suffering because they have no money)
Q3...this has nowhere to go but down. They are in a cash crunch. Similar to Q1 they likely won't be able to afford panels to install, leaving them with cancellations and lesser sales.
The compliance wasn't a "they worked for it" thing, it was a tertiary benefit of converting the Chairmans debt to equity...nothing more.
On top of that we learned an installer that owes them 600K is having a hard time and not able to pay them... so money lost there.
I almost think these guys are just begging to go BK now. Start over. They are kind of stuck.
Then lets not forget the SEC investigation... sounds like that's going to cost them 1.1 mil now. They are trying to get their insurance company to cover it as a claim but it's being denied... they are fighting it- but wow. This is U-G-L-Y....
This is a short candidate IMO. Right in BK. They may get some foolish banker to loan them money...just to extend the runway to hell.
I know I know...turnarounds etc... this was a story where the turnaround looked like it was happening mid year...maybe in Q3...but there is no more turnaround. This is a turnaround where they got stuck in the ditch TRYING to turn around.
If you hold here...it's gonna be a VERY long time before you get your money back...if ever. I would rather sell now and buy...I don't know...throw a dart and pick a stock, you've got better odds IMO.
Long...only because I have money to waste here.
AI
