Below is part of a post I put up in the wee hours of Saturday morning. I wanted to follow up with a confirmation that I firmly believe AVXL will be in triple digits within 2-3 years. I was holding 26K shares on Friday and added another 3K this morning ~$7.25.
As you can see from the REGN timeline below, in ~2.5 years (start of PH3 trial to approval) the stock went from $16-$21 to $50-$60. REGN is now at ~$560. If you have put all your current savings into AVXL at ~$14 pps you feel terrible. When I was younger I've been there. I would sell, lick my wounds and move on. Saving to make up the loss and looking for a "winner".
No drug has ever shown the improvement that A2-73 in AZ. NONE. And the safety profile is superb. This is a huge blockbuster. Just go back to work, play with your kids, have a barbecue with the neighbors, go fishing, go to the local high school football game, make love to your spouse / partner, volunteer to help teach a child to read or volunteer to help feed the homeless. Don't obsess over this stock. I've done this. When you obsess you lose track of the big picture. You'll either get shaken out way to early at a loss or you will sell for a 20% to 100% gain when you should be holding for a 200% to 1000% gain.
Think about this; 1 in 3 individuals over the age of 80 will develop some form of dementia related disease. Will A2-73 be the "one a day child's aspirin" that everyone with any kind of potential heart condition takes. In ten years at my yearly physical will the doc say, "Oh, Mr. NWDR, you're 70 now. You should be taking a small dose of A2-73 just to maintain your cognitive abilities and make sure nothing bad happens to your brain." Okay. Guess 30M people take this drug at $50 per month; revenue $1.5B per month!
You may only have a small number of shares of AVXL. Well if you hold for 3-5 years that may be all you need. In 5 years your kid my need braces. Well maybe you sell 2 or 4 shares of AVXL to pay for them.
Life changing investment right here.
ps. my opinion of course.
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For REGNs first blockbuster drug; Eylea, initial indication was for the treatment of wet age related macular degeneration.
7/2009 first patient enrolled PH3 trial; pps in this month, $16-$21
9/2009 PH3 enrollment complete; pps this month, $19-$23
11/22/2010 52 week, PH3 trial data, pps 11/19 $25, 11/22 $29.5
2/2011 BLA submission to FDA, pps $33-$38
4/2011 FDA priority review granted, pps $42-$71
11/18/2011 FDA approval, pps $50-$60
Eylea has an annualized sales rate of greater than $4B. REGNs recorded portion of this revenue in the 3Q15 was ~$850M. REGNs pps is ~$562. REGN has 116M shares outstanding. Eylea has now been approved to treat other eye indications such as diabetic macular degeneration. REGN has a very strong pipeline with multiple more shots on goal.
For AVXL; after all the warrants are exercised maybe we have ~50M shares outstanding.
AVXL is on the cusp (hours) from presenting the first data showing strong efficacy and a very safe profile for treating a terrible disease.
Dr. Missling has stated that they will partner 2-73 for the AZ indication.
The 2-73 market for AZ is larger than Elyea's market for wet AMD.
AVXL 2-73 has more treatment indications to follow; Parkinson's, Epilepsy, dementia, etc.
AVXL 2-73 has all the early hallmarks of a huge commercial success. While I would hope and pray that it can reverse and prevent AZ it doesn't actually need to for it to be a blockbuster drug for AVXL. It just has to be an improvement over what is currently available.
AI
