Sunday, November 08, 2015 1:35:57 AM
How do you make sense of a technical chart pattern... when the reliable pattern gets shattered by big money powerful enough to do big tricks when it suits their plans.
Ive spent a lot of hours watching in real market time all the price action.on all time frames, and for several days, (weeks and months actually). and these past few weeks watching and trading AVXL has been quite an exercise in added insight and lessons learned.
What Ive seen happening since the 98 cent bottom was established,and followed by the great run to the 14.84 top is a price action that moved about 90% of the time in clear and predictable/readable technical patterns.
90% of the time...and then suddenly, at a moment when a great plunge or a great soaring run should not happen ,not happen to such an extreme... the big money takes the price to a greater extreme.
I believe the greater surge to the top, from the 13 dollar area ,that continued surging to the 14.84 top was Overblown and needed to come back down. Conversely, the extreme bottom we saw plunging on friday was also overblown and should have found a more normal technical support around 10.00 area.
By 'normal technical price action' ,I mean the technical trading moves that happen 90% of the time... and how you can call it normal is because it can be diagrammed by the technical tools and especially the Fibonacci mathematics.
When you look at any chart of any stock in any sector, and you use the Fibonacci retrace tool,just to use that one tool, there are others that also show normalcy on a technical chart but lets look at this tool, the Fibonacci retrace.along with the Fib arcs.
Not 100% perfect in its forecasting ,but I believe 80-90% reliable,in showing the retrace/pullback Target zone to anticipate.
It works so well,I've made it a mainstay in my charting,and pay close attention to watching it as a magnet for price action. and When the price action goes right to these Fibonacci targets and pauses, or stops and reverses, 85-90% of the time, I call that a reliable forecasting tool.
Now in the past few months, watching AVXL price action, Ive seen the Fibonacci retrace tool and the Fib arc, continuing to show the target zones reliably.
....Until the moments when Big money and market making power,controlling the game, decide to smash the technical chart .
Unless someone can tell me the technical or fundamental reason why huge amount of shares were dumped at precisely a noon hour or a 10 am hour, at precisely a certain price pointor blasted up at the open on a few days and then Blasted down at the open on the last 2 days......because some hedge fund sold? or because some manipulation hedge fund idiot tweeted a bash?...or maybe Theres something I dont know? like warrants were exercised? something that is Not shown ahead of time on the technical chart even down to the 1 minute and 5 minute charts?
I watch the intraday price action closely, and I take the time to see almost everything a chart can show.the moving averages, the elliott waves, on all time frames. waves within subwaves,support points on many time frames,pivot points, I see the clock time,Fibonacci retrace levels on many waves,separate smaller waves, and larger waves. I cover all the technical points from bottom to top, up and down.
When you watch all the price action and use the technical and mathmatic tools along the way,as the chart pattern takes shape, the technical tools begin to show the picture,and better as time develops the picture....at some point the price action comes to an inflection point. The technical tools show this moment as well. These price action developments , seem to follow a technical pattern that is keenly predictable ....90% of the time.
AVXL has moved to this technical pattern most of the time.
and when it does, the chart produces these targets with the technical tools.
Notice how the Fibonacci arcs capture the flow of price action and Fibonacci retrace show the target zones.
The Fib Arcs ,and price pulls back to the arc targets.
So far so good...now,lets look at This latest upwave and downwave , over the past 2 weeks ....
Now, technically speaking ,even this extreme slam down to 8 dollars is still within the playing field shown by the Fibonacci tools.... The old support shoulder zones, etc... I use the word abnormal because this bottom zone was achieved in two days, especially one day (friday) and because up to that point the upwave pattern showed every liklihood of holding at normal support areas, after it bounced back, Thursday,from the 10.65 plunge back to the 13.20 pivot,one could easily call that a strong bounce. and so the technical chart was now showing the Fibonacci target gets hit, and bounces on thursday, leaving every reason to believe higher steps of support should be retested and hold around 11.00-11.65 area.
(click to enlarge)
but Friday showed the force of a greater power controlling the price action,and the technical chart, that was still intact on Thursday ...got shattered on Friday morning. and remained on the floor all day.
Do you think that big money players, hedge funds, nasdaq big money would unload all their shares at the 12 dollar point just because they see some hedge fund Twit do a bashing tweet? or was this more orchestrated by greater money powers. I dont know how all that works, HFT algos and all that. But I can tell you the price collapse was not normal technical price action, and nothing like the 90% of all the other price action that happened for weeks and months.
Part of why the price plunge was a bit 'unreal' was the speed of the volatile moves...what should take weeks to play out was Rushed along in days. Both up and down. like there wasnt time to wait a week or two...so maybe the expectation of "Great news on November 7 " was important in some unclear way.My guess is that the big money market makers wanted hedge funds and big players to have another chance to buy cheap shares and they were running out of time to 'arrange that' which would mean it was a shorting Game.on the final day.
That, or some other explanation I cant describe ,but which served to shatter the technical price action, technical chart pattern that up to Late Thusday, was intact and reliably predictable.
Now if we add,just for fun, another timing cycle tool the lines that show some possible cycle timing for tops and bottoms,some kind of key cycle moments. Here's the first cycle line
Here is the next cycle line after that,added onto the chart.
Ive spent a lot of hours watching in real market time all the price action.on all time frames, and for several days, (weeks and months actually). and these past few weeks watching and trading AVXL has been quite an exercise in added insight and lessons learned.
What Ive seen happening since the 98 cent bottom was established,and followed by the great run to the 14.84 top is a price action that moved about 90% of the time in clear and predictable/readable technical patterns.
90% of the time...and then suddenly, at a moment when a great plunge or a great soaring run should not happen ,not happen to such an extreme... the big money takes the price to a greater extreme.
I believe the greater surge to the top, from the 13 dollar area ,that continued surging to the 14.84 top was Overblown and needed to come back down. Conversely, the extreme bottom we saw plunging on friday was also overblown and should have found a more normal technical support around 10.00 area.
By 'normal technical price action' ,I mean the technical trading moves that happen 90% of the time... and how you can call it normal is because it can be diagrammed by the technical tools and especially the Fibonacci mathematics.
When you look at any chart of any stock in any sector, and you use the Fibonacci retrace tool,just to use that one tool, there are others that also show normalcy on a technical chart but lets look at this tool, the Fibonacci retrace.along with the Fib arcs.
Not 100% perfect in its forecasting ,but I believe 80-90% reliable,in showing the retrace/pullback Target zone to anticipate.
It works so well,I've made it a mainstay in my charting,and pay close attention to watching it as a magnet for price action. and When the price action goes right to these Fibonacci targets and pauses, or stops and reverses, 85-90% of the time, I call that a reliable forecasting tool.
Now in the past few months, watching AVXL price action, Ive seen the Fibonacci retrace tool and the Fib arc, continuing to show the target zones reliably.
....Until the moments when Big money and market making power,controlling the game, decide to smash the technical chart .
Unless someone can tell me the technical or fundamental reason why huge amount of shares were dumped at precisely a noon hour or a 10 am hour, at precisely a certain price pointor blasted up at the open on a few days and then Blasted down at the open on the last 2 days......because some hedge fund sold? or because some manipulation hedge fund idiot tweeted a bash?...or maybe Theres something I dont know? like warrants were exercised? something that is Not shown ahead of time on the technical chart even down to the 1 minute and 5 minute charts?
I watch the intraday price action closely, and I take the time to see almost everything a chart can show.the moving averages, the elliott waves, on all time frames. waves within subwaves,support points on many time frames,pivot points, I see the clock time,Fibonacci retrace levels on many waves,separate smaller waves, and larger waves. I cover all the technical points from bottom to top, up and down.
When you watch all the price action and use the technical and mathmatic tools along the way,as the chart pattern takes shape, the technical tools begin to show the picture,and better as time develops the picture....at some point the price action comes to an inflection point. The technical tools show this moment as well. These price action developments , seem to follow a technical pattern that is keenly predictable ....90% of the time.
AVXL has moved to this technical pattern most of the time.
and when it does, the chart produces these targets with the technical tools.
Notice how the Fibonacci arcs capture the flow of price action and Fibonacci retrace show the target zones.
The Fib Arcs ,and price pulls back to the arc targets.
So far so good...now,lets look at This latest upwave and downwave , over the past 2 weeks ....
Now, technically speaking ,even this extreme slam down to 8 dollars is still within the playing field shown by the Fibonacci tools.... The old support shoulder zones, etc... I use the word abnormal because this bottom zone was achieved in two days, especially one day (friday) and because up to that point the upwave pattern showed every liklihood of holding at normal support areas, after it bounced back, Thursday,from the 10.65 plunge back to the 13.20 pivot,one could easily call that a strong bounce. and so the technical chart was now showing the Fibonacci target gets hit, and bounces on thursday, leaving every reason to believe higher steps of support should be retested and hold around 11.00-11.65 area.
(click to enlarge)
but Friday showed the force of a greater power controlling the price action,and the technical chart, that was still intact on Thursday ...got shattered on Friday morning. and remained on the floor all day.
Do you think that big money players, hedge funds, nasdaq big money would unload all their shares at the 12 dollar point just because they see some hedge fund Twit do a bashing tweet? or was this more orchestrated by greater money powers. I dont know how all that works, HFT algos and all that. But I can tell you the price collapse was not normal technical price action, and nothing like the 90% of all the other price action that happened for weeks and months.
Part of why the price plunge was a bit 'unreal' was the speed of the volatile moves...what should take weeks to play out was Rushed along in days. Both up and down. like there wasnt time to wait a week or two...so maybe the expectation of "Great news on November 7 " was important in some unclear way.My guess is that the big money market makers wanted hedge funds and big players to have another chance to buy cheap shares and they were running out of time to 'arrange that' which would mean it was a shorting Game.on the final day.
That, or some other explanation I cant describe ,but which served to shatter the technical price action, technical chart pattern that up to Late Thusday, was intact and reliably predictable.
Now if we add,just for fun, another timing cycle tool the lines that show some possible cycle timing for tops and bottoms,some kind of key cycle moments. Here's the first cycle line
Here is the next cycle line after that,added onto the chart.
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