Maybe being a little older and more seasoned I wanted to highlight what I believe the true payoff may be with AVXL against the backdrop of what has occurred with the share price over the past several days. Full disclosure... I'm holding 26K shares and it is not an insignificant portion of my portfolio.
Longer term, everything depends on the data and safety from the trials. With that being said lets take a look at a company, their first drug trial timeline and stock price.
First REGN. I've chosen to look at this company as I believe it represents where AVXL may end up. AVXL has two large BP partners, Bayer and Sanofi. These partnerships have been mutually beneficial to the both parties.
For REGNs first blockbuster drug; Eylea, initial indication was for the treatment of wet age related macular degeneration.
7/2009 first patient enrolled PH3 trial; pps in this month, $16-$21
9/2009 PH3 enrollment complete; pps this month, $19-$23
11/22/2010 52 week, PH3 trial data, pps 11/19 $25, 11/22 $29.5
2/2011 BLA submission to FDA, pps $33-$38
4/2011 FDA priority review granted, pps $42-$71
11/18/2011 FDA approval, pps $50-$60
Eylea has an annualized sales rate of greater than $4B. REGNs recorded portion of this revenue in the 3Q15 was ~$850M. REGNs pps is ~$562. REGN has 116M shares outstanding. Eylea has now been approved to treat other eye indications such as diabetic macular degeneration. REGN has a very strong pipeline with multiple more shots on goal.
For AVXL; after all the warrants are exercised maybe we have ~50M shares outstanding.
AVXL is on the cusp (hours) from presenting the first data showing strong efficacy and a very safe profile for treating a terrible disease.
Dr. Missling has stated that they will partner 2-73 for the AZ indication.
The 2-73 market for AZ is larger than Elyea's market for wet AMD.
AVXL 2-73 has more treatment indications to follow; Parkinson's, Epilepsy, dementia, etc.
AVXL 2-73 has all the early hallmarks of a huge commercial success. While I would hope and pray that it can reverse and prevent AZ it doesn't actually need to for it to be a blockbuster drug for AVXL. It just has to be an improvement over what is currently available.
Now, regarding stock price action.
Take a look at the REGN chart on 4/27/2011 and after. Look familiar? A huge spike up to ~$72 followed by a sell off down to ~$46.5. Painful if you bought at $72 but not if you held until today.
There are short attacks and there is also the more 'normal' market action of the MMs (market makers) moving the market to balance and profit in their own portfolios. Imagine what the MMs were doing on
10/30, 11/2 and 11/3 for AVXL. To maintain an orderly market they were forced to sell shares into the demand. At the $14-$15 level the demand for shares started to be satiated. The MMs (and yes the shorts) will now attempt to walk the price down. The shorts just cause they are !#$@$holes but the MMs do it so they have an opportunity to buy back the shares they sold into the market at those lower prices.
Pull up a daily chart of REGN for the past 10 years. Look at the times where the stock seemed to just drift lower... 7/6/11 to 8/9/11 and others. The MMs are going to get the price lower so they can buy back the shares they sold into the price spike.
For me; I'm not selling unless Dr. Missling sells. I've been playing in the stock market for 30 years and I've never held a winner from single digits to triple digits. I can wait 2-3 years for this to be in triple digits if that's what is takes. Might be sooner... look at ICPT. I'm at the end of my career. AVXL would be the icing on the cake... well maybe a couple of cakes... and a Black Butte Porter or two. The point I'm rambling about is that I never had the patience when I was younger to just let a winner go. I should have been retired many times over... Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon, Google, Apple (twice), BIDU. I've owned them all but never for multiple years. For those of you younger and middle age individuals. You have many more years of earnings ahead of you than I do. Even though I have less time than you I'm finally now willing to just wait for a winner to come home. If the data and efficacy for 2-73 look good I would suggest you ride the winner also.
Now where's my bottle opener...
Going to blow up some aliens and see what happens at 1:00 am my time.
Cheers
ps. obviously not investment advice because this is really just a social media outlet and who would ever follow any advice given on a social media outlet...
