A point I’d like to make about the short interest in Northwest Bio that’s not really been addressed is that the short interest has practically been compounding AFTER the VERY POSITIVE September 16 presentation in London. Which is simply amazing to me.
Back on September 16, 2015, the company offered yet another update at SMi’s 4th Cancer Vaccines in London on the already impressive data for both the Information Arm for GBM patients with rapid progression, and as well for the P1 Patients in the Direct Trial for inoperable tumors.
So here the company presents this enhanced, and frankly even more fantastic data on both Direct and L…. and for a brief few days, the share prices rallys from $7.68 to $8.43… to then actually have the shorts double down and continue to drop (give or take a few days) the share price over the next 20 days to the low of $4.19 on October 16… the day over 20k options expired… shoveling somewhere between 11 to 13 million dollars into the pockets of those who’d bought those puts, who were most likely mainly shorts.
And as many of Longs have come to accept, there is obviously a concerted short attack here that began in even more earnest AFTER Linda’s presentation on September 16 where she delivered EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE data on the two vaccines.
These shorts are sitting in what should seem very comfortable profit positions at this time… I doubt very few are even using margin… and still they do not exit their positions. It’s evident that the shorts either still believe the horribly skewed information that has been spewing from the mouthpieces of shorts for the past two years, or… they know the only thing that will save them from disaster in this position is for the company to ultimately be destroyed.
If in addition to the data presented at SMi, NWBO is also sitting on something excitingly material… beyond just news if the halt should lift and enrollment continue… it would very likely turn the profit they are sitting on to something untenable. of those shorts that have not exited their positions. I very much doubt shorts are wiling away the hours contemplating that the reason for the halt is a lack of efficacy or futility. 30 days have long since passed for the FDA to have responded… had the reason been negative that NWBO was submitting data for regulatory review for. Instead, arguing that the screening halt is due to something positive, we have, or are about to reach the end of the 60 days that it normally takes for the FDA to reach a decision on.
And what was the additional and impressive data presented at SMi?
In the GBM Information arm, not only is the same double rapid progressor still alive six and a half months later, more importantly, of those patients in the same Information Arm that were deemed “INDETERMINATE” (also called “single rapid progressors” back in March - data may have been obtained in January/February), only ONE of those 9 patients has died since then, still leaving 8 single rapid progressor patients alive.
For these single rapid progressors, or indeterminant patients… the median OS here is 21.5 months. The median OS for regular GBM patients as most of us know is 14.6 months. It’s important to note that these very patients would have been excluded from the main arm of the current P3 trial with their initial greater than 25% progression. So here these patients are showing a 21.5 OS… and they are unfortunately worse off than those GBM patients that made it into to the main arm. Shorts can claim all they want that the P3 trial will not show efficacy or stat sig… but the proof in this Information Arm argues otherwise.
Then let’s turn to the updated Direct data from this SMi conference. First presented in detail at ASCO (end of May)… Linda tells us that the data cut off data for ASCO now makes this data being presented at SMi is 5 to 6 months later than the data cut off date at ASCO. As of September, 19 or almost half of these 39 patients are still alive, some up to 22 months. It’s important to note that this OS IS FROM THE POINT OF INJECTION… not diagnosis. These patients have tried and failed an average of 3 other conventional treatments prior to enrolling into this trial. And this life expectancy is considered well beyond what the life expectancy would be for this type of patient population. While there is an overall median OS of something like 13.5, this is for a diverse group of indications, it includes a lesser performing method (A), and is a medium OS that, again, starts from their first injection of DCVax. Add to that complexity is that there were three different dose levels, with a higher dose level correlating with a higher survival. And the higher number of injections also correlates with a higher survival rate.
As of September 2015, 7 additional patients have passed. It’ll be interesting to learn which dose level and number of injections these 7 patients received. It’s been stated many times that the more injections and the higher the dose level supports the longer survival time.
It must be obvious to all that there is a concerted short attack here that began in even more earnest AFTER Linda’s presentation on September 16 where she delivered EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE data on the two vaccines. These shorts are sitting in what seem very comfortable profit positions at this time… I doubt very few are using margin… and still THEY DO NOT EXIT their positions. It’s evident that the shorts either still believe the horribly skewed information that has been spewing from the mouthpieces of shorts for the past two years, OR… they know the only thing that will save them from disaster is for the company to be destroyed. As Larry has indicated, most likely these shorts are working in a pack… so it’s doubtful you’d see one of the hedge funds exit their position as that would raise the price and eat into the profit position the other hedges are sitting in. And it wouldn’t be too difficult for the wolf pack to figure out which of their pack exited. And if they all exit at once, that profit they are all enjoying will erode or disappear. 12 million shares bought on the open market will definitely send the price up.
If… in addition to the data presented at SMii…NWBO is also waiting on something excitingly material that may be the reason for the halt… it could very likely be the ruin of the short position in NWBO as it currently stands. It would definitely cut into any overall profit positions these particular hedge funds were hoping to end their year with.
I very much doubt the hedge fund shorts are whiling away the hours in their easy chairs thinking that the reason for the halt is a lack of efficacy or futility. 30 days have long since passed for the FDA to have responded… which is the typical time that the FDA spends to respond to a problem for which NWBO might have been submitting data for regulatory review to explain. However, the FDA typically takes up to 60 days to reach a decision on any possible positive scenarios the data was submitted for.
60 days.... August 21 said couple of weeks to submit data. That brings us to September 4. 60 days later... about November 4, give or take. As Flipper has noted on several occasions.
