UPS technical commentary ahead of earnings
For nearly the last two years shares have been trading in a sideways range defined by a low at $95 and a high at $110. There have been breaks of either end of that range, but they have not held. If the news is strongly bullish, a test to the high of the range from the current price of $106.32 seems likely. A breakout above $110 would see next resistance at $114.40, the 52-week high and life high. Price thereafter would be unbound, opening up a potential run to the $115 to $120 area. On a long-term view, the range we have noted appears to be like a bearish head and shoulders top (10-year or longer view). If the news is bearish, first support would be at the $100 area. More negative news could see a test down to the low of the range at $95. If there were a more extreme negative surprise and the $95 level was taken out on the downside, it would trigger the pattern. Downside potential over time would be to the $80 to $75 area. The $80 level in the past had been major resistance for the stock, from 2006 until the breakout in January 2013