I have often thought about all of the variables you mentioned (DCA, AIM, Value Averaging, Constant Dollar Plan). A few years ago I started reading Jason Kelly and found him to be bright and adamant about not being able to predict anything. He's written a couple of books but his latest one, "The 3% Signal" might interest you. He has a website and newsletter but if you follow the book that's really all you need. He does have a free 'nifty' calculator at jasonkelly.com/3sig/ that I have found helpful. I have corresponded with him on a few occasions about AIM.
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