Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Whalatane]

Gabor ..re trial design

You are assuming that when they designed RI they could anticipate future behaviors of CAD patients .
After all ...as our learn'd contributor from MIT/Harvard maintains ...nothing changes ...even tho he admits to giving up smoking and I've stopped eating red meat , eat Salmon 5 days a week, get an annual flu shot and jog an hr 5 days a week .

NONE of which I did when RI was designed.

So are we to assume that only old fa#ts from MIT stop smoking or only naive Kiwi's give up red meat for more Salmon ?

So according to U , this trend existed and was built into the design .
The trial data on the benefits of getting a Flu shot for CAD patients came out late 2013 ...did they anticipate that ?...or Kaiser's aggressive campaign to get all their CAD patients ( and Diabetic patients ) Flu shots since then.

I agree , as others are posting , that this "on the margin " change in behavior will be seen in BOTH arms in at least the US , NZ , Aussie and Netherland patients in RI.
The effect will be to likely delay the 967th event for interim analysis IMHO.

Why is this important ?
Because of the cash burn at Amarin .
Unless 1st A enables them to ramp script growth they will not be break even at any time in 2016 .
As U know they have a debt pyt due ( $37M ? ) early 2017 .

So if Interim is delayed past your Late Feb 2016 projection , and scripts haven't grown enough to enable the Co to be break even ...what do you expect to happen ?

Kiwi ( ex CEO and CFO ..sub chapt S Corp CA)