Depends who you ask akakooper. Also depends on the news.
One poster here would say -1,456,593% based on his highly accurate "thumb in the air" analysis and whether he had his Wheaties that day.
For what it is worth,
I say FDA news only, 15-20% (total guess).
******FDA news, funding news, 60-80% (guess).
******FDA news, reputable partner news, 95%-100% (guess).
******FDA news, other unforseen news, ???? (Highly accurate)
******No FDA news...0% (Highly accurate)
Since most believe FDA news (positive) is coming, odds would be > 15%, and less than 101%.
You just can't get this kind of actionable analysis for free.. :)
BMSN