NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

Not sure it was that I disagreed so much as I just didn't want to read the same argument many times over. I disagreed with the weight you were giving what you were stating repeatedly, however, as I saw the technology as paramount, and so trumping issues of conflict of interest. Because if L gets approval, this will easily head over $30, and if Direct gets approval for sarcoma and lung, then over $100 (at least until sales #s hit and reality sets in), and the shady Toucan (Powers)-Cognate (Powers)-NWBO (Powers) trifecta will be completely ignored (as it for the most part is right now).

But I do fully understand your frustration with speaking to a group of heavily biased individuals about their beloved NWBO stock, which will purportedly make them rich, cure cancer, etc.

I am surprised to hear you didn't sell off completely over $10. That's a shocker. Can't say you're "pot committed" after the run to $12.50 anymore, so why do you still hold shares?

I'm just good at making a case and good at debate. Always have been. I saw the positives as outweighing the negatives here for a long time. Once that balance became "weakened" by forthcoming information, and the run to upper $8 occurred concurrent with that (no ORR in Direct trial revealed, yet Woodford buying like a drunken sailor anyway), I secured my position with puts, but stayed long my $4.77 cost basis shares. Closed them in low $7s. Got more in mid $8s. Closed again in low $7s. Got more in mid $8. Closed those around $9 for loss and then sold all my $4.77 shares too (I wrote all of these things as they happened).

I sold all my shares at that time too because my research into DCVax-L revealed things I previously had overlooked. And the German protocol basically wrecked my modeling (modeling is very "fragile"). And still Woodford buys buys buys and Branko K too. Seems they did some research in Nov 2014 and then just stopped looking, but kept right on buying. That fooled many longs into thinking "something big" was up and I read many accounts of "buying more!" all the way up to the $12s on these boards. Ouch. This activity was of course lauded and encouraged to continue by other militant longs, who were promising "$15/share," and "$1B mark cap," and in some crazy cases, a share price "equal to our peers of $35 - $80/share"... Just.. wow!

Now I'm planning on going short. I've only done that a few times. And I'm going to publicly denounce Woodford's analyst's research into NWBO as wanting (hopefully incite one to come debate me) and alerting patients to the misalignment of management's declarations of their vaccines' effectiveness with their actual data. Stuff I would want to know to make a more informed decision if I were a patient.

If I convince a few patients to avoid NWBO's old, useless DCVax-L, I'll be glad. I'm not a physician, but, lol, neither are Les and Linda Powers who's jaws flap non-stop about how amazing these vaccines are.

DCVax-Direct I think is almost as bad as L, and something as simple as IL-2 intratumoral injects would be far more effective. Lots of stage III, ECOG 0 patients with low grade, however inoperable, lesions in the Direct P1, and so the current survival chart is neither surprising nor impressive. And PFS data (which they hid, but inadvertently divulged anyway) are truly horrible with Direct.

But, shorting is all about timing, and I'm not great at timing. I'm great at picking winners, and losers, and getting out with a profit as soon as I smell something off (if something is off). I have my ideas about when will be a good time to short here (since I didn't at $12, which would obviously have been ideal), but I won't publicly be disclosing any of that. It's creepy how diligently Linda and Les reads these boards. And telling, I might add...

Good luck, and maybe you'll get a chance to sell the rest over $10 again, though I doubt it (no more drunken sailor $50mm open market buying in the future here).