The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[Timothy Smith]

$PCL Plum Creek's long-term net asset value is around $47/share (assuming an overall timberland value of $1,500/acre; with more than half of the acreage worth around $1,800 to $1,850/acre).

Recent private market transactions have remained above the long-term per-acre values estimate for Plum Creek, and the central pillar of my bullish thesis on Plum Creek remains that the public markets value the company's timberland less than "professional" buyers have been shown to be willing to pay for broadly similar assets.

The issue for investors remains the fact that mid-teens undervaluation and a yield above 4% isn't a dramatic reward for an investment that is subject to economic risk/sensitivity and likely some interest rate risk as well (as bond rates go up, the yield looks less compelling). All in my personal opinion.