SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[imiloa]

danny PM'd me gdl's 5-wave theory.

fwiw, i expect basically the same thing, tho maybe for parallel independent logic,
(haven't read gdl's recent posts, so don't know his full rational for the 5-wave theory.)

here's my take, which you should take with grain of salt
as it's rife with speculation...

i think today is the bounce we've been anticipating
with bonus spice of GDP boost and fed rate can kick hint.

but i feel market confidence was broken by the multiday drop.
so i expect a lot of people to take profits once this bounce stalls.

also, as ever, i expect China to retrace back down to 2200-2500 level soon,
being another 20% drop from present levels.

that's why i'm only playing aug28 calls intraday today.
and will likely also close my sept4 calls today, while they are up huge.

guessing we'll see some big moves on the aug28 tmrw morning as they move toward exp EOD.
will likely play several of those oscillations til noon when premium starts to fade.

if we rally high tmrw, then start to slide, we might get another panic selloff through the afternoon into the close, like last friday.
as people dump, expecting the worst again, and not wanting to hold over the weekend.