This is one of the better reads I have found on yahoo amrn message board with a buzillion knuckle heads blocked.
It is a retort to the latest Zack's article on yahoo touting MTNB.
MAT90001 got it's patent for 15 years in 2014. They still have to run a phase 3 trial later this year and apply for FDA approval which basically means they probably will not be able to sell into the marine market with approval until 2017. By then the results of Vascepa Reduce-it trial will be know with final results in 2018.
For arguments sake lets say both the phase 3 for MAT90001 and Reduce-it trial for Vascepa are both successful, which is mainly why you would invest in either stock.
So in 2017 Vascepa has a successful Reduce-it trial and is the only omega 3 drug selling in the 150 to Marine(500+) trig population and MAT90001 is still only approved for Marine with Lovaza and Generic Lovaza. As you can see it has taken Vascepa three years to get to it's current sales shown in the article with a small sales force. How long will it take MAT90001 to achieve this with a tiny sales force? Also Vascepa has numerous studies in it's favor for EPA intake, and MAT90001 has none for it's intake of DPA, because this is the first time large amounts of DPA can be synthesized and put in a drug. Yes it may reduce trigs, but what about the bigger picture of reducing CVD a total unknown for MAT90001.
So now with Vascepa out and chewing up market share a BP is supposed to put over 100 million into a five year trial plus a year data review for MAT90001. So that takes us from 2018 which is the earliest it could get a trial started to 2023 for results and 2024 with final results.
One more thing to note MAT90001 will not get NCE or NME on Astrazeca's Epanova already has Oranged Booked with the FDA a DPA drug product. So at this point in time they have to defend there one patent against generics from day one. While Vascepa which now has NCE is safe from generic filers unitl 2020 with HW.
So with a whole 5 years left on it's patent and having to try to take marked share from an already well established Vascepa. I just don't see a big pharma taking that kind of a chance.
