Transocean Ltd. (RIG)

[ogbull]

Venezuela suffers Food Crisis and Riots: Rebellion could come at any day. Venezuela holds the world's largest known reserves of crude. They are the 7th largest exporter in the world. They need ~$115.00 per barrel to support their government operations. They can not pay their own government employees. At $47 per barrel, they are toasted, fried, screwed, and will likely face civil war.

The country exports 2 million barrels per day. I don't think the current government can keep the situation bottled up much longer. The question is: What happens to the 2 mbd of oil production if the civil unrest gets any worse?

Now look at this video:

http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/08/01/venezuela-food-crisis-sparks-looting?videoId=365147883

Other OPEC countries are also suffering. The 2nd question is can OPEC keep pumping like crazy while their members have serious financial problems? Can the world deal with the financial collapse of 3-4 OPEC countries? Can Saudi Arabia continue to pump oil or will they give up their 32 mbd quoted? Will they cut a deal with Russia? Will the Saudi King fired the old oil minister and put his son, the current second in command of oil production, in charge? Will Russia join OPEC? I think so. The Saudi King will put his son in charge who will then blame the current situation on the old oil mister and reinstate the quote system and send WTI back to $60 like a rocket! Watch it happen!

Shorts would be caught is one hell of a squeeze!