Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[heysfguy]

Another buyout concept that has occurred to me is this:

Given: a buy-out offer can come before R-IT or after R-IT. It is, as always, a matter of valuation.

If you wait until after R-IT, and the study is successful, you spend 10-XX billion dollars (if R-IT is successful, that is). And you have to compete with other large companies, so there's a bidding war. Good luck with that.

If you buy AMRN before R-IT results, you spend much, much less. If R-IT is successful, you are a great leader. If R-IT is not successful, you still have a drug that is getting a larger and larger share of hyper-trig market, as well as a drug that may have significant applications in other areas (such as diabetes and DES). But at this point the downside potential is getting smaller and smaller.

If you want to buy AMRN now, you'll need to structure the deal to to allow for R-IT success, so it's an upfront price plus some way of sharing future profits. This is not unheard of.

If you buy it later, then you may be dealing with a company that's already solvent, and has multiple partnering agreements in place. This could which may make a purchase more difficult - and ultimately cut into your potential profits.

So I think a good case can be made for a buyout offer at this time. Whether or not it's acceptable is another matter. But it would have to be a striking offer.

Making this more viable is the possibility that 1st Amendment case may increase potential valuation of AMRN. So if we get a win on 1st Amendment case, you may be seeing more than just a normal bump. Say - 25-50%. Now how does that early buyout offer look?

That's my optimistic choice of scenarios. Not pumping - just long, long, long here.