Intel Corp (INTC)

[jhalada]

wbmw,

You and others are being far too hopeful on the "shift in mix" prospect. It basically assumes that for every person who would have purchased an Athlon 64 or Athlon X2 for $200 or $400 or $600, that instead will be paying $150 as some people think, there is also a person willing to spend $50 on a Sempron, who instead decided to spend $150 on an X2.

No. That is absolutely not what I am saying. What made you think of such a ridiculous scenario? Even a strawmen argument must be somewhat in touch with reality.

Your theory is that a person has certain product in mind, say Athlon X2 4600, and that the Athlon X2 4600 buyers will go from spending $600 to spending $300.

My theory is that there are no X2 4600 buyers, but there are $100 buyers, $200 buyers, $300 buyers etc. As the prices shift, these buyers will just buy different processors in their price range.

As the overall pricing level declines (which is what's on schedule for this summer), the $300 buyers may get a $250 bargain, but overall, they will stay in their range.

Sorry, but that does not support the traditional reaction of the market. Instead, the $50 Sempron buyer gets a $50 Athlon 64, content that they can now get more for their money. The $150 buyer of a low power Athlon 64 will also be content that they can now get an Athlon X2 for the same money.

Makes sense.

And meanwhile, the $600 Athlon X2 buyer will not see anything in the $600 price range and instead get a $150 indentical product, content that they can spend less for their purchase.

But this is where you go off the deep end. The $600 buyer (and there are not many of those) will still get a high end product in his price range, whether it is from AMD or Intel. Intel may win some of these buyers if Intel products are superior.

Joe