Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

Re: That is a static analysis, assuming that the mix of parts does not change, and that the demand does to clim to higher clock speeds.

You and others are being far too hopeful on the "shift in mix" prospect. It basically assumes that for every person who would have purchased an Athlon 64 or Athlon X2 for $200 or $400 or $600, that instead will be paying $150 as some people think, there is also a person willing to spend $50 on a Sempron, who instead decided to spend $150 on an X2.

Sorry, but that does not support the traditional reaction of the market. Instead, the $50 Sempron buyer gets a $50 Athlon 64, content that they can now get more for their money. The $150 buyer of a low power Athlon 64 will also be content that they can now get an Athlon X2 for the same money. And meanwhile, the $600 Athlon X2 buyer will not see anything in the $600 price range and instead get a $150 indentical product, content that they can spend less for their purchase.

Or instead, you should assume that Intel will at least win some people over to their new price/performance/watt story, which is quite reasonably priced.

Overall, this will create quite an extreme reduction in ASPs for AMD, and no amount of mix shift will halt that.