Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Drano]

"A bet any gambler would take"? A gambler who didn't know the odds correctly, and who didn't understand what game he was playing, maybe.

According to the FDA, the number of drugs that make it in phase 3 is NOT 50%, it is 25-30%. Would "any gambler" take that bet? Here's the link:
http://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Drugs/ucm405622.htm

Also, that is for ALL drugs. Alzheimer's drugs are notorious for their failure in Phase 3. VERY few Alzheimer's drugs have been approved, despite the many billions of dollars spent on research. The percentage of failure is much higher in this category.

AVXL's drug looks very promising, for reasons others have explained well. Nevertheless the claim about approval rate is incorrect, and the special problems that Alzheimer's drugs face need to be factored in.

I remain bullish on AVXL but there needs to be a realistic view of the difficulty it faces. (And, of course, of how incredible it will be if the drug works.)

I think the epilepsy drug is extremely promising and warrants a much higher share price than the current one. I wouldn't bet the farm on just the Alzheimer's drug's potential.