Hi hando,
Sorry you couldn't access Murphy's analysis. Thanks for that feedback.
Here's the Reader's Digest summary:
THE FIVE WAVE ADVANCE IN THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX SINCE 2011 SUGGESTS THE COMPLETION OF THE THIRD WAVE IN A BULL MARKET -- THE MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION OR CORRECTION WITHIN ITS MAJOR UPTREND
By John Murphy
NYSE INDEX APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A WAVE THREE... They say when you start to feel seasick you should focus on the horizon. Daily market swings are starting to make me feel seasick. So in line with that nautical theme, I'm going to focus on the market's long-term horizon by using Elliott Waves to try to put things into perspective. I'll explain what that is as I go along. Chart 1 plots weekly bars for the NYSE Composite Index since the 2009 bottom. It looks to me like the six-year rally has completed three major upwaves. Hence the three blue numerals. Elliott Wave Analysis holds that a bull market is comprised of five major waves -- three up waves (1,3,5) interrupted by two corrective waves (2 and 4). It seems clear that the first major upwave ended in 2011. Hence the number 1. A nearly 20% correction that year certainly qualified as a wave 2 correction. The market rallied for four years since late 2011 with only minor corrections. I believe that four-year rally has traced out a five-wave pattern of its own. If I'm right about that, the market has completed its three wave and is due for a wave four correction.
